The EU is paying €10 billion more per month for oil than in 2025

The import bill has nearly doubled while volumes remain unchanged

European countries are paying significantly more for oil imports in 2026 following a surge of tensions in the Middle East in February 2026. According to Euronews, in the second quarter of 2026 the EU spent an average of €27.6 billion per month on oil imports — 55.8% more than the €17.7 billion per month in 2025. Supply volumes remained virtually unchanged: growth was only 1.2%, from 36.3 to 36.7 million tonnes per month. The result: the union is paying €9.9 billion more per month for almost the same amount of oil.

The price per tonne has returned to the 2022 peak

The cost of a tonne of imported oil rose from €487 in 2025 to €750 in the second quarter of 2026. This is the second-highest figure since 2021 — just €2 below the record set in the second quarter of 2022. At the end of 2025 a tonne cost €435, in the first quarter of 2026 it was €498, and then it jumped to €750. For the quarter as a whole, the EU spent €82.7 billion on imports of crude oil, compared with €50.3 billion a year earlier, as volumes grew from 105.2 to 110.2 million tonnes.

The cause is the conflict in the Middle East

Professor Xiaoyi Mu of the University of Dundee explained the increase by the rising cost of crude oil: the average monthly Brent price in the second quarter of 2026 was 49.5% higher than the 2025 average — up $34 per barrel. He recalled that in 2025 about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products were exported daily through the Strait of Hormuz — roughly 20% of global daily consumption. Shimon Kardasi, a senior policy fellow at the ECFR, linked the disruptions to the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, noting that tanker traffic through the strait returns to pre-war levels in some weeks and then falls again. Wolfgang Eichhammer of IEECP added that high global demand also plays a role, with Europe competing for oil with buyers in Asia, primarily China. The EU's vulnerability is compounded by its import dependence: according to Eurostat, it reached 96.6% in 2024.

Oil accounts for 95% of the rise in the energy bill

The increase in costs is almost entirely attributable to oil. In the second quarter of 2026 the EU spent €115.6 billion on energy imports, compared with €81.4 billion a year earlier; oil products accounted for €32.4 billion of the total increase of €34.2 billion, or 95%. Spending on other energy sources changed little: gas imports rose by €1.6 billion, coal by €0.4 billion, while LNG supplies fell by €0.2 billion.

Drivers are paying more at the pump

European motorists are already feeling the price rise. Diesel across the EU rose in price from €1.54 per litre in the first week of January 2026 to €2.24 at the end of September — above the 2022 peak of €2.03; on 19 October it cost €2.14, 38% more than at the start of the year. Petrol rose from €1.60 to €2.10 per litre by the end of September, also exceeding the 2022 maximum, before falling slightly to €1.99. Filling a 50-litre diesel tank now costs about €107, compared with €77 in January.

Experts do not expect costs to fall soon

In Xiaoyi Mu's view, high costs will persist because 'we see no real path to ending the conflict'; he also expects prices for food, public transport and everyday services to rise due to the widespread use of diesel in freight transport. He added that higher transport and insurance costs may not yet be fully reflected in the second-quarter data, but could further increase the cost of imports in the third and fourth quarters. Kardasi expects that the costs associated with the conflict 'will persist in the coming months and may well carry over into 2027.' Eichhammer also sees a high risk that oil prices will remain high or rise further. Kardasi noted, however, that the pressure will be uneven: transport, heating, agriculture and energy-intensive industry will feel it immediately and pass the costs on to end consumers, whereas service sectors will remain largely shielded.