The key facts

  • Shukhrat Rasul: the EU proceeds from its own interests and will not automatically fulfill Trump's demands
  • Khamza Boltaev: the US is in no hurry with legal guarantees, while Europe proposes a permanent military contingent in Ukraine
  • The initiative to revise pan-European security is being promoted by Russia, but, according to the experts, it cannot be shaped by Russia and the US alone

Dispute over the format of negotiations

The question of whether involving Europe in Russian-Ukrainian negotiations would lead to a repeat of the failure achieved in Istanbul became the topic of discussion by political scientists Shukhrat Rasul and Khamza Boltaev in an episode of the channel 'Geosiyasatkunuz'. Political scientist Shukhrat Rasul noted that the European Union's position is clear: Ukraine must determine its own fate. However, according to him, when it comes to the European security architecture, the EU will negotiate based on its own interests and will not unconditionally fulfill Trump's demands tomorrow, since serious contradictions exist between the parties.

US and European differences over guarantees

Khamza Boltaev pointed to the difference in approaches to security guarantees for Ukraine. In his assessment, the current US administration is in no hurry to provide such guarantees: Washington is focused on economic and political aspects and avoids legal commitments, viewing protection from Russian aggression in the same vein. Europe, by contrast, is promoting an initiative to station a permanent military contingent on the territory of Ukraine and to develop security guarantees under US leadership.

Ideological shifts and a new architecture

Boltaev also emphasized that ideological changes in Europe are not yet complete: traditional liberal and expansionist political forces remain mainstream. In the US, the attempt to change this political course, in his words, encountered an obstacle in the midterm elections. In the future, European governments and the forces supporting transatlantism in the US may reach common agreement on issues of Ukraine's security — and it is precisely this scenario, the expert believes, that Russia does not like. Separately, he noted that the Trump administration's initiative to newly shape the pan-European security architecture coincides with the concept that Russia is promoting in negotiations with the US; however, in his opinion, it cannot be formed only by the leaderships of Russia and the US: what is at stake is the restructuring of the entire security system, ideological approaches, and relations between states on a new basis.