US Midterm Elections and the Prospects of War with Iran: What It Means for the Gulf Countries

Trump links the defeat to the war

After the Republicans' defeat in the midterm elections, US President Donald Trump acknowledged that the war with Iran probably played a role in it. “I think it was partly related to Iran, but at the same time people understood the importance of what I did with Iran,” he said on Fox News, noting that voters were not ready to accept the war's consequences for gasoline prices. This is reported by Deutsche Welle.

Threat of a new campaign after the elections

According to Deutsche Welle, the US and Israel, as analysts have observed, refrained from major strikes on Iran until the elections in both countries were completed. In late October, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration had already warned the governments of Gulf countries of the need to prepare for a short but intense military campaign after the midterm elections. At the same time, Trump himself told several media outlets that he was “in no hurry” to start bombing Iran again.

Two scenarios for the “lame duck”

Analysts differ in their assessments of the White House's next steps. Two American professors of political science, writing in the journal Foreign Affairs noted that “lame duck” presidents who have lost control of Congress and cannot run for re-election often escalate international interventions, and Iran is one likely direction. On the other hand, a Democratic Congress could theoretically block funding for military operations, although new members of Congress will only take their seats at the beginning of next year.

Iran's position is unclear

Opinions about Tehran's next steps are also divided. Iranian authorities declare their readiness for any strike, and the rhetoric of senior leaders points to a possible expansion of the list of targets — up to regional energy infrastructure, undersea telecommunications cables and data centers. Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, warned at the institute's online briefing: if Iran considers the existence of its leadership to be under threat, “all bets are off,” and this time targets in the Gulf countries will be chosen differently. Other experts, on the contrary, believe that Iran deliberately waited until the electionsin order to put pressure on Trump, and may now be more ready to negotiate a peace agreement.

The Gulf countries caught between two fires

The main targets of Iranian attacks since the beginning of the conflict have been the Gulf countries, and their position remains vulnerable. “We have been drawn into a crisis that we tried very hard to prevent diplomatically. We are clearly looking for a political way out,” said Anwar Gargash, Anwar Gargash diplomatic adviser to the UAE leadership, at the Manama Dialogue conference in Bahrain. Qatar is trying to mediate between the US and Iran, but at the same time is holding drills at the airport; the Emirates are conducting similar exercises. Saudi Arabia, according to Deutsche Welle, risks a war on two fronts: it is already under attack by the Houthis from Yemen. Even Egypt, it is reported, has reinforced air defenses around the Suez Canal.

Reassessment of alliances

The war has already forced the Gulf countries to reconsider their defense partnerships with the US: American bases, instead of providing protection, have made them a target. “There is widespread disillusionment in the region with the US over the recklessness of the war, the unpredictability of Washington's military and diplomatic actions, and the decision to prioritize the defense of Israel over Gulf partners,” said Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow at IISS, to the agency Bloomberg. “If the US liberation of Kuwait in 1991 cemented America's role in the region, the 2026 war may be the moment when that role was destroyed.” The Gulf countries are expanding external ties: the UAE is drawing closer to Israel, and Saudi Arabia has joined the Mecca defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey. Andreas Krieg of King's College London, in Middle East Eye writes that the Gulf is already moving toward strategic autonomy, and a lame-duck Trump will only accelerate this process. Former US Ambassador Ryan Crocker, however, is skeptical about Gulf unity, citing disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and lingering distrust of Qatar after 2017. In Harrison's view, in the long run the Gulf states will inevitably reach some kind of understanding with Tehran: 'Geography rules.' The main risk now, he says, is a new escalation, after which the path to diplomacy would be lost.