The key facts
- COP31 in Antalya (November 9–20) takes place against the backdrop of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and political disagreements.
- Australia and Turkey have proposed the '35 by 2035' goal: 35% of global energy from electricity by 2035.
- Despite record emissions in 2025, a decline is expected in 2026 due to geopolitical factors and the growth of solar energy in China.
COP31 Conference in Antalya: Challenges and New Goals
From November 9 to 20, the UN climate change conference COP31 will be held in Antalya, Turkey, bringing together tens of thousands of participants, including negotiators, scientists and activists. The event takes place three years after the historic COP28 summit in Dubai, where, for the first time, a commitment was recorded for countries to move away from fossil fuels. However, the current context is complicated by the US withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement and growing skepticism about climate initiatives in a number of states, which creates serious political obstacles to global cooperation.
New Goals and Political Disagreements
The negotiations at COP31 are led by Australia, which, together with the host country Turkey, has proposed a global goal of '35 by 2035' — ensuring that 35% of global energy consumption comes from electricity by 2035. Under the Paris Agreement, a second Global Stocktake will also be launched, during which countries will present updated national contributions to emission reductions. Despite political resistance, experts note that the market economy and cheaper technologies are driving the transition to renewable energy sources and electric transport, even if political leaders lag behind real processes on the ground.
Real Shifts and Limitations
Analysts point out that geopolitical instability, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has accelerated the move away from fossil fuels, as oil and gas imports have become more difficult and expensive. In China, the largest carbon emitter, coal use for electricity generation fell by 1.9% over the past year, and solar energy has begun to displace coal, turning it into a backup source. Nevertheless, experts warn of the risk of a 'bipolar' transition: while some countries are actively implementing green technologies, others, including the US, are offering resistance. In addition, the transition is hampered by a shortage of energy storage technologies, which slows the mass adoption of renewable energy sources.
Emission Statistics and the Role of COP
In 2025, global carbon emissions reached a historic maximum; however, according to CarbonBrief, a decline of about 0.5% is expected this year, mainly due to restrictions on oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere in 2025 was 426.8 parts per million, which is 53% above pre-industrial levels. Although the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C is considered unattainable, experts emphasize that the COP process itself remains critically important for maintaining dialogue and signaling the world's readiness to transition to renewable energy, preventing even more catastrophic scenarios.
