The key facts
- In the third quarter of 2026, a positive output gap re-emerged in the Russian economy — a sign of overheating
- The Central Bank links this to domestic demand growing faster than industries' capacity and to increased inflationary pressure
- The regulator forecasts a gradual narrowing of the gap; consumer activity slowed during the quarter
The Central Bank noted that the economy is overheating
The Bank of Russia in the summary of the key rate discussion, published on November 5, 2026, reported that in the third quarter of 2026 a positive output gap re-emerged in the Russian economy — a situation indicating an «overheating». The document is posted on the regulator's website.
The regulator's reasons and forecast
According to the assessment of the participants in the Bank of Russia's Board of Directors meeting, the overheating is caused by an imbalance: domestic demand is growing faster than certain industries are able to expand supply. Such an imbalance, the regulator noted, reinforces sustained inflationary pressure. Budget spending served as an additional stimulus for demand. At the same time, consumer activity slowed in the third quarter, and experts differ in their assessments of its further dynamics. The Bank of Russia expects the output gap to gradually narrow as production capacity recovers and demand growth becomes more restrained.
Context: recent Central Bank steps
The publication of the summary follows a series of recent initiatives by the regulator. In early October, the Central Bank tightened the conditions for issuing consumer loans, and Deputy Chairwoman of the Bank of Russia Zulfiya Kakhrumanova had earlier spoken about the advantages of the digital ruble: according to her, large sums can be transferred to relatives via the platform without fees or limits, and businesses can save on accepting payments and paying salaries. The regulator links these measures to the overall policy of restraining demand, against the backdrop of which the return of economic overheating was recorded.
