Central Bank raises key rate forecast for 2027–2028 and explains the reason

In its updated forecast dated October 23, the Bank of Russia raised the expected average key rate for 2027 to 12.5–13.5% and for 2028 to 9–10%. In the summary published on November 5, the regulator linked this to persistent inflation expectations and a slow recovery in the supply of goods.

Aziz KarimovFirst published on tafs uz 5 November 2026 at 20:162 min read

The key facts

The forecast average rate for 2027 has been raised from 10.5–12.5% to 12.5–13.5%, and for 2028 from 8–9% to 9–10%
The Central Bank explains the decision by high inflation expectations and a slow recovery in production
The key rate has been kept at 14%; the next Board of Directors meeting is on December 18

Revision of the forecast trajectory

The Bank of Russia has raised its forecast trajectory for the key rate for 2027–2028. According to updated calculations dated October 23, the average rate in 2027 is expected to be in the range of 12.5–13.5% instead of the previous 10.5–12.5%, while the forecast for 2028 has been revised upward — from 8–9% to 9–10% per annum. This is reported by Life.ru citing materials from the regulator.

Why the Central Bank expects higher rates

The reasons for the revision are set out in the summary of the discussion of the rate decision published by the Central Bank on November 5. High inflation expectations among households and businesses were named as the main obstacle to a rapid slowdown in price growth: in the view of discussion participants, they reinforce inflation inertia and require a longer restrictive effect of monetary policy on domestic demand in order to bring annual inflation back to the target of 4% in 2027.

Supply problems and the current rate

The second factor is the slow recovery of production capacity: enterprises are returning to their previous output levels more slowly than expected, so a temporary reduction in the supply of goods may affect prices even after the original problems are resolved. Under these conditions, the regulator intends to be more cautious about cutting the rate. Recall that at the meeting on October 23, the Board of Directors kept the key rate at 14% per annum; the next meeting is scheduled for December 18. Additional materials on the Russian economy are available in the Economy section of Life.ru.