The key facts
- The Central Bank allowed for the need for tighter monetary policy to bring inflation down to 4%
- The inflation forecast for the end of 2026 was raised from 6–7% to 7.1–7.6%
- Economists consider it possible that the rate will stay at 14% at the December 18 meeting
The regulator revised its forecast and acknowledged the effects of the earlier easing
The Bank of Russia published on November 5 a summary of discussions on the key rate and a commentary on the medium-term forecast. In the document, the regulator admitted that for a steady decline in underlying inflation toward the 4% target, «a greater degree of tightness in monetary conditions may be required than what has actually prevailed in recent quarters». At the same time, some participants in the discussion linked the acceleration of underlying inflation, among other factors, to the accumulated effects of the earlier policy easing — in their view, decisions taken previously may have contributed to faster price growth. This is reported by Life.ru.
Inflation forecast raised
Alongside this, the Central Bank revised its estimate of consumer price growth for the end of 2026: whereas 6–7% had previously been expected, the range is now 7.1–7.6%. This is a confirmed change relative to the regulator's earlier position, recorded in the published document itself.
What analysts expect ahead of the December meeting
Earlier, the same outlet reported on economists' forecasts for the regulator's December meeting: analysts noted persistently elevated underlying price pressure in the economy despite individual signs of a slowdown in price growth, allowed for inflation of 7.1–7.6% by the end of the year, and expected the high cost of borrowing to persist. In their assessment, at the December 18 meeting the Central Bank may keep the key rate at 14% per annum. These estimates align with the regulator's own new inflation forecast, but the decision on the rate remains an assumption by analysts, not a decision of the Central Bank.
