Giant early-warning radar being completed in Kaliningrad — NATO is alarmed

What satellites reveal

In the Kaliningrad region, near Gvardeysk, construction of a huge radar complex with three diverging antennas, each more than 500 meters long, is almost complete. Russia has not confirmed that it is building the facility, but retired Lithuanian military officer Vaidotas Malinionis explained its purpose to DW: it is an over-the-horizon (OTH) radar with a detection range of about 3,000 kilometers, capable of seeing beyond the horizon — that is, covering almost all of Europe and the territory of Ukraine. According to him, the system's purpose is monitoring distant targets and early warning, but it is not yet known whether it can operate in that mode. The outlet Deutsche Welle notes that the radar, as reported, will make it possible to intercept satellite communications and track the movements of aircraft and ballistic missiles.

Why it is needed and what it changes

Britain's The Times, citing the Finnish-Polish company ICEYE, writes that the systems are intended primarily for detecting and jamming electronic signals. Malinionis explained that the radar could be used in offensive operations to collect data on specific targets, and early warning of NATO troop movements would give Moscow more time to make decisions. Latvian analyst Evija Dzatkoviča warned that the revival of an old Soviet technology also has a downside for the alliance: the radar will help Russia close existing gaps in detecting low-flying objects, reducing the effectiveness of rapid drone integration into regional defense doctrines. ICEYE, according to the same publication, views the expansion of the OTH radar network as a sign of Kaliningrad turning into a hub of advanced military sensors and electronic warfare systems.

Kaliningrad as a military hub

According to Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, ICEYE has discovered another large circular antenna complex about 50 kilometers west of Gvardeysk, near Chernyakhovsk, and in total more than 20 communications and electronic warfare facilities are reportedly located in the region. Satellite images also show new shelters for fighter jets at the Kaliningrad-Chkalovsk military airfield and launch positions of a mobile S-400 system in Baltiysk, which may indicate they are ready for operation. Dzatkoviča emphasized that Kaliningrad's geographic position and the nuclear arsenal stationed there allow Russia to project threats onto most European capitals, and the range of the new radar makes the regions of Europe to the north and west more vulnerable to surveillance. Malinionis, citing certain sources, stated that the region is capable of hosting up to 100 nuclear warheads, and according to some reports their deployment has already begun — however, this has not yet been confirmed.

The West's response and the radar's vulnerability

Dzatkoviča noted that every escalatory step by Russia motivates the West to rearm and makes collective deterrence by NATO and Europe more convincing. She cited the example of Poland, which is turning an offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea into NATO surveillance infrastructure, and also mentioned that the German concern Rheinmetall, together with ICEYE, is building synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites: the first of them are planned to be launched into orbit by a SpaceX rocket in early 2027, and the imagery will be used on NATO's eastern flank and by the Bundeswehr brigade stationed in Lithuania. Malinionis, however, also pointed out a weak spot in the new Russian system: due to its enormous size, the radar is a rather easy target.