The key facts

  • In Israel, neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition received 61 seats — official results by November 4, a coalition must be formed by November 11
  • Arab parties in Israel are expected to take 18–19 seats — a record for Arab parties
  • Lula da Silva won the runoff with just over 51% against about 49% for Flavio Bolsonaro

Israel: no winner determined yet

The main political event of the week was the election in Israel, writes Kun.uz. According to preliminary results of the parliamentary election, neither the bloc of incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition secured the required 61 seats. Official results will be announced by November 4, after which, by November 11, one of the sides must form a coalition and take control of the government. If a government cannot be formed, a repeat election will be held.

Possible scenarios

The outlet describes several possible scenarios. According to its data, General Gadi Eisenkot could join forces with the opposition and Arab parties, secure the necessary 61 seats and form a government, which would lead to Netanyahu's departure. Another scenario is also possible: the incumbent prime minister reaches an agreement with Eisenkot himself on a mixed government. Kun.uz separately notes that Israeli Arabs are expected to win 18–19 seats — a clear record for Arab parties.

Brazil: Lula re-elected by a narrow margin

In Brazil, incumbent President Lula da Silva won again by a narrow margin. In the runoff, just over 51% of voters backed the 80-year-old Lula, while about 49% voted for Flavio Bolsonaro. Four years ago, according to the outlet, the result was similar, but back then Lula defeated the elder Bolsonaro, who is now in prison. Lula had stated that if he won, the younger Bolsonaro would also be taken into custody; however, as Kun.uz writes, it 'didn't happen in time' — Flavio, according to the outlet, fled to the United States.

Washington's reaction and the question of a new war

The Bolsonaro family is close to Trump, and the US supported Flavio's candidacy, the outlet notes. Lula's victory was received negatively in Washington: Trump's supporters spoke of the need to 'sever ties with Brazil,' but, in Kun.uz's assessment, they failed to prove that the election in Brazil was undemocratic. The article also says that reports of a possible new war with Iran became increasingly frequent during the week: on November 3 the US will hold midterm elections, and the next day the answers will become known; on the same day the outcome of the Israeli election will also be determined. According to the outlet, if the Trump and Netanyahu governments remain in place, new major operations against Iran are likely — with strikes on the new leadership, nuclear facilities and IRGC systems, but without a ground invasion. At the same time, Kun.uz allows that the outcomes of the elections in the US and Israel may also prevent a new war. This is the outlet's assessment, not a confirmed fact: the publication cites no official statements about preparations for an operation.