News about ECB: events, facts and developments on tafs uz.
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The European Central Bank is expected this week to keep its rate at 2.5% amid rising inflation driven by the energy shock. Markets' main attention is on France: its bond yields have hit their highest level since 2002, but most observers consider activation of the anti-crisis TPI tool unlikely.
Otabek YusupovThe yield on 10-year French government bonds exceeded 5% for the first time since 2002, the spread over German bonds is above 170 bps, and the cost of credit default swaps has reached its highest level since 2012. The ECB, as expected, is likely to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. Christine Lagarde said that solving France's debt problems lies within France itself. Moody's, markets expect, may downgrade France's rating to A1 on Friday evening.
Javlon TursunovThe eurozone composite PMI fell in October to 51.9 from 53.1 in September — a four-month low. France showed the sharpest deterioration among the largest economies: its PMI dropped to 48.4, and companies' expectations were the worst since April 2020. Experts link this to political instability and rising government borrowing costs. Germany remains in growth territory but is slowing due to more expensive raw materials and energy. The yield on French 10-year bonds reached its highest level since 200
Sevara AzamovaIn September 2026, inflation in the euro area stood at 3.8%, but the spread within it is wide: 2.7% in Finland, 3.3% in Germany and 6.1% in Lithuania under a single ECB rate of 2.50%. The main driver was an 18.9% rise in energy prices, while the differences are explained by energy mix, taxes and wage dynamics.
Javlon TursunovThe typical ten-year mortgage rate in Germany has approached 4.5%, surpassing the late-2023 peak, broker Interhyp reports. The rise is linked to inflation fears caused by the war involving Iran and ECB rate hikes. House prices continue to rise, while new mortgage lending is declining.
Sevara AzamovaFrench 10-year bond yields are holding near 4.9% amid street protests and the fight over the 2027 budget. Public debt has reached 119% of GDP, and interest payments will rise by almost €12 billion. Oxford Economics modeled scenarios: in the harsh variant, France and Italy would enter recession in 2027, although the eurozone as a whole would avoid it. Economists note that the ECB is better prepared to support countries than in the 2010s.
Nilufar KarimovaAccording to ECB estimates, eurozone inflation reached 3.8% in September 2026, up from 3.2% in August. The main driver was energy: prices rose 18.8% due to a halt in LNG production amid the war in the Middle East. Lithuania recorded the highest rate (6.1%), Malta the lowest (2.4%). The EU proposed energy resilience measures but rejected requests from Italy and Greece for fiscal flexibility.
Dilnoza RahimovaThe European Central Bank approved Italian UniCredit exceeding the 30% threshold of Commerzbank's share capital with no upper limit. By the end of the year, the bank expects to obtain about 50% of voting rights and establish control. The deal faces resistance in Germany: the government, which retains a 13.3% stake, is seeking guarantees on jobs and the headquarters in Frankfurt, but Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil called the negotiations constructive.
Dilnoza RahimovaThe euro fell to $1,111 — its lowest level since mid-May 2025 — and to £0.842, a low since early June 2025. Pressure comes from rising energy prices due to the war involving Iran, the French public finance crisis, and a stronger dollar after US inflation hit 3.7%. The ECB has raised rates twice this year, but that has not stopped the decline. Investors await Fed decisions on October 28 and ECB decisions on October 29.
Nilufar Karimova
