Secondary housing market: prices rise slowly, discounts shrink, and mortgages remain prohibitive

A stable October: prices and supply

The secondary housing market of old Moscow remains stable at the end of October. According to the INCOM-Real Estate Analytical Center, the average asking price per square meter stands at 310.9 thousand rubles: over the month it rose by 0.3%, since the beginning of the year by 8.4%, and over the year by 8.8%. The average apartment price is 15.47 million rubles, with a median increase of 8.2% since the beginning of the year and 8.6% over the year. The volume of supply amounts to 98.64 thousand lots: it grew by 0.2% over the month and decreased by 1.6% since the beginning of the year. This is reported by Life.ru citing data from the center.

Discounts exist, but they are shrinking

A characteristic feature of the current market is the reduction in bargaining. In October, 66% of secondary housing deals closed with a discount, whereas at the beginning of the year this share was 76%, and a year ago 75%. Moreover, the average discount size has also decreased: now 3.9% versus 4.4% at the beginning of the year and 5.4% a year ago. The average listing time for properties has fallen to 40 days — compared with 54 days at the beginning of the year and 67 days a year ago.

Why the market has split into liquid and illiquid

Denis Vasilyev, head of the Novoslobodsky office at INCOM-Real Estate, explains that average figures are distorted by the accumulation of illiquid properties that 'hang like dead weight': in practice, lots priced adequately sell quickly in 2026, while overpriced apartments remain on the market. According to him, buying is often unprofitable due to instant price increases, and the number of buyers is limited: mortgages remain inaccessible except for a small surcharge, and a significant portion of money is held in deposits. When housing price growth cancels out deposit returns, the opportunity to 'transfer' savings into real estate does not arise. Yulia Dymova, director of the secondary real estate department at Est-a-Tet, adds that budget-friendly and liquid properties sell within 5–15 days, while demand for lots costing more than 30–40 million rubles and apartments with outdated renovations is low: buyers spend only the funds they have and stay within budget. A significant share of the market consists of alternative deals, including chains and the sale of inherited or recently privatized housing.

What awaits the market from December 1

Experts do not expect a sharp spike or collapse in prices for finished apartments from December 1, 2026. Svetlana Opryshko, founder of the Vseostroyke.rf portal, forecasts moderate growth for liquid properties in good condition and a 'stagnation' of problematic lots without discounts; she names the seller's readiness to bargain and the actual quality of the property as the key factor in the price of a specific apartment. In her assessment, there are no prerequisites for a trend reversal: the main driver of demand is mortgage rates, which remain at the prohibitive level of 17–19% per annum, and to revive buyers a psychological threshold of around 10% is needed, which, according to the updated medium-term forecast of the Central Bank, will not be reached before 2028. Evgeny Belokurov, head of the Yandex Real Estate service, notes that the approach of the holidays in itself means neither a price spike nor mass discounts: with a large selection, sellers have to compete for buyers, and if banks lower rates, some people will be able to return to postponed purchases — but this does not mean housing will immediately become more expensive.