The key facts

  • IMF: Uzbekistan's GDP growth — 7.8% in 2026, 6.5% in 2027
  • Among its neighbors, Kyrgyzstan (9%) and Tajikistan (7.3%) are growing faster, Turkmenistan (2.4%) slower
  • The IMF's baseline scenario assumes the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March 2027

Forecast for Uzbekistan and its neighbors

In its October edition of the World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund projects Uzbekistan's economy to grow by 7.8% in 2026, slowing to 6.5% in 2027. Euronews reports this in its review of the report. For comparison: Kyrgyzstan, according to the fund's estimate, will grow by 9% this year and 7% next year, Tajikistan by 7.3% and 6.8%, and Turkmenistan by 2.4% and 2.5% respectively. Kazakhstan, according to the forecast, will slow from 6.5% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026, but then accelerate to 4.9% in 2027 and remain the fastest-growing economy among oil-exporting countries in the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia group.

What lies behind the regional figures

The fund links growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia region to commodity prices, remittances and ongoing reforms. The contrast with the Middle East is explained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March, which, according to the IMF, disrupted the transportation of about 20% of global oil production — roughly 20 million barrels per day. For the Persian Gulf countries, the fund expects a double-digit decline in 2026 (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar), followed by double-digit growth in 2027. The shortfall was offset by producers outside the Gulf — Brazil, Kazakhstan, the United States and Venezuela — as well as by redirected supplies and the release of reserves by the IEA and China. The IMF's baseline scenario assumes the strait will reopen in March 2027 and conditions will return to pre-war levels by October of the same year.

Context: a slowing global economy and AI

The global backdrop for the Uzbekistan forecast is a slowdown: global economic growth, according to the fund's estimate, will decline from 3.5% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026 and recover to 3.4% in 2027, while inflation, after falling to 4.1% in 2025, will rise to 4.7% in 2026. At the same time, the IMF sees an opportunity for commodity-exporting countries, including Kazakhstan, in growing demand for components for artificial intelligence technologies — semiconductors and other equipment that require raw materials from countries at the beginning of the supply chain. However, the fund explicitly notes that the sustainability of the investment boom in AI remains uncertain: demand may prove more resilient than expected, but energy constraints and security concerns could hold back the sector's growth. For Uzbekistan, the fund does not provide any specific conclusions on this matter in Euronews's account.