The key facts
- Direct damage from explosions over ten months of 2026 is estimated at $4.28 billion — 1.9% of nominal GDP, excluding metallurgy
- The NBU revised its forecast: instead of 1.8% growth, a GDP decline of 0.4% — the first annual contraction since 2022
- The shutdown of four metallurgical plants could push annual GDP losses to 7%
Damage assessment and the state of the economy
Over the first ten months of 2026, Ukraine's economy lost about $4.28 billion due to explosions at various facilities — equivalent to 1.9% of the country's nominal GDP, excluding possible damage to the metallurgical sector. These calculations were presented by the TASS news agency based on data from the Ukrainian government, as reported by Life.ru. According to the agency, from January to October explosions affected warehouses, energy enterprises, defense-industry facilities and port infrastructure; data centers serving the needs of Ukraine's Armed Forces were also damaged.
Forecasts revised downward
The country's economic indicators turned out to be below initial expectations: at the start of the year the authorities had counted on GDP growth of 1.5–2.5%, but now, according to the agency's figures, the economy shows zero growth, and economic activity contracted in the second and third quarters. The National Bank of Ukraine has also worsened its forecast for 2026: as Bloomberg reported, instead of the previously expected growth of 1.8%, the regulator now allows for a GDP decline of 0.4%. This would be the first annual contraction of Ukraine's economy since 2022, when its volume shrank by more than 30%. The NBU explained the revision by the consequences of Russian strikes and declining business activity.
The risk from the metallurgy shutdown
Additional losses may come from the shutdown of metallurgical enterprises: after a series of explosions in August and September, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, Interpipe Steel, Zaporizhstal and Kametstal halted operations. If the plants do not resume production, annual GDP losses could reach 7% compared with the same period last year. It was also reported that over three months of Black Sea port downtime, Ukraine lost about $6 billion. Thus, the confirmed direct losses ($4.28 billion) and the projected estimates (up to 7% of GDP in the event of a prolonged metallurgy shutdown) belong to different categories: the former is damage already incurred, the latter are possible consequences if the plant shutdown continues.
