Arizona's Latino voters grow disillusioned with Trump ahead of the midterms

From campaigner to critic

Two years ago, 22-year-old Fernando Nunez from Yuma County, Arizona, went door to door in the heat campaigning for Donald Trump. In the midterm elections on November 3, he intends to vote for independent candidates — neither Republicans nor Democrats. 'Trump betrayed us. He did a 180-degree turn,' he said in an AFP report. According to him, he had counted on prices coming down, an end to international wars and the declassification of the Jeffrey Epstein files, but now he is unhappy with the administration's lack of transparency on the Epstein case and with the war with Iran, which, he claims, pushed up gasoline prices and fueled inflation. Nunez, who works as a sales representative earning $1,600 a month, complains that 'gas, insurance, food — everything has gotten more expensive.'

Somerton: from protest against Biden to disillusionment

Yuma County illustrates the rightward shift of the Latino electorate that helped Trump win in 2024: he carried it by a 20-point margin. In Somerton — an agricultural town whose population is almost entirely Latino and which usually votes Democratic — about 40% of residents voted for Trump in 2024. Left-leaning mayor Gerardo Anaya links this to discontent over inflation under Joe Biden and the daily influx of thousands of migrants: 'It was simply a vote against the Biden administration.' Now, he says, these voters are going through a 'rude awakening.' Residents in the parking lot of the only supermarket complain about the prices of carne asada and diesel fuel, while rising gasoline prices have made a popular local pastime — buggy rides in the desert — more expensive.

Disillusionment without backing the opponents

National polls show that disillusionment among Latino voters is widespread and gives Democrats a chance to win at least one chamber of Congress. In Somerton, however, irritation with Trump does not necessarily translate into support for his opponents. A Mexican-American gardener who could not accept the mass immigration police raids and the deportation of people without criminal records ('Trump said he would hunt down criminals. That did not happen') intends to abstain from voting altogether. Jaime Sanchez, a 52-year-old barbershop owner who chose Trump because of his stance against abortion and for 'family values,' is wavering: he is troubled by the deportation of law-abiding adults, which separates them from their children — US citizens.

Pastor sees a long-term rightward shift

At the same time, not all observers consider the disillusionment irreversible. Jose Manuel Castro, a 75-year-old evangelical pastor from neighboring San Luis, sees 'great discontent' and expects protest voting from his congregation. In the long run, however, he believes the shift of religious Latino voters toward the Republican Party is only beginning: many are alienated by the American left with its positions on abortion and transgender rights. 'The Democratic Party promotes things that contradict the principles of the Word of God,' he told AFP. Thus, even within a single town, sentiments diverge: some voters are turning away from Trump, but not from Republicans as such.