The key facts
- Seller discounts in prime London reached 10.1% in September, with prices down 7.1% year on year
- Transactions were 16.8% lower than in September 2025 — the weakest September since 2016
- In the £5m-plus housing market, new listings rose by 32.5%
Discounts and Falling Prices in the Prime Segment
In September, sellers of property in London's prime postcodes had to accept average discounts of 10.1%, while final sale prices fell 7.1% compared with a year earlier. These figures come from the analytics firm LonRes. The number of transactions was 16.8% lower than in September 2025 and 13.9% below the pre-pandemic average (2017–2019) — the weakest September by sales volume since 2016. Compared with the pre-Covid level, prices in September were 8.2% lower.
The £5m-Plus Segment
For properties priced above £5m the picture is somewhat different: transactions fell by 12.5%, but the number of newly listed properties rose by 32.5% compared with the same month last year and by 63.6% relative to the 2017–2019 average. Discounts in this segment increased by 0.8 percentage points but remain 88.8% above the levels of 2015–2024. LonRes notes that sales in the super-prime segment are 'subject to the influence of news and speculation, resulting in a start-stop market'.
An Example of a Loss-Making Sale
John Griffin, founder of London taxi company Addison Lee, who sold his business to the Carlyle Group for roughly £300m ($464m) in 2013, sold a mansion overlooking Regent's Park in early October for £11.5m — just over half the price he paid 13 years ago (£20.7m). The house on Hanover Terrace had been reduced in price several times in recent years but had failed to sell. LonRes stresses that in a weak market it is important to set a competitive starting price, 'since the longer a house remains on the market, the larger the discount needed to close the deal'. Between July and September, the average discount for homes on the market for less than three months was 3.8%, while for those listed for six to 12 months it was 11.1%.
Analysts' Views and the Budget
Nick Gregori, head of research at LonRes, noted that September usually revives the market after the summer lull, and this year that partly happened: buyer and seller activity rose relative to the summer but remained sluggish for this time of year, while prices continued to fall due to buyer caution. According to him, demand is being dampened by the cost of borrowing and expectations of no future growth, as well as global uncertainty and concerns about inflation. He believes buyers of prime property should not expect generosity from Chancellor John Healey's budget on 28 October, and the best that can be hoped for is the absence of new negative changes. In his view, reports that the lowering of the 'mansion tax' threshold from £2m to £1.5m will not go ahead are likely to be received positively by a market seeking certainty. The £5m-plus segment, where a high proportion of buyers and sellers act at their own discretion, suffers most from uncertainty: there is no one there who needs to rush into deals.
Shortage of 'Super-Properties' and New Listings
The Knight Frank Residence Report highlights a growing shortage of large new-builds: fewer than 3% of completed homes in Westminster and in Kensington and Chelsea exceed 200 sq m, making super-prime residences a rarity. Among recent market launches is a four-bedroom duplex penthouse of 3,100 sq ft with a frequent roof terrace for £15.5m at the 100 George Street development in Marylebone. Developer Native Land calls the 41-residence project one of the fastest-selling in prime central London. The penthouse interior was designed by Eloise Couturier of the studio Cuturi Cameto and includes commissioned artwork by Joanna Yuland inspired by the neighbouring Regent's Park. Native Land executive director Nicholas Gray said that opportunities to buy a new-build of this calibre in Marylebone are 'extremely limited'. Rupert des Forges, head of prime central London developments at Knight Frank, noted sustained demand for large, ready-to-move-into homes in prime central London. Also listed for sale is a £20m ($26.4m) penthouse at Southbank Place — the final release within the £1bn development carried out by Braeburn Estates, a joint venture of Qatari Diar and Canary Wharf Group, on the site of the former Festival of Britain; the project took more than 10 years to complete.
