The key facts
- Abu Dhabi: agreement in principle on a prisoner exchange, no breakthrough on a ceasefire or territories
- Zelensky: discussion of Europe's security should come after the war ends and guarantees for Kyiv are secured
- Medinsky compared the future system to Yalta and Potsdam and rejected territorial concessions
What happened at the talks in Abu Dhabi
The US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi ended with an agreement in principle on a major prisoner exchange, but without a breakthrough on a ceasefire or a territorial settlement. Instead, diplomatic attention shifted to another question — who should represent Europe at the negotiating table and what the continent's future security architecture will look like. After the meeting in Abu Dhabi, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveled to Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin, and then to Dublin to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The positions of Kyiv and its European partners
After meeting the American envoys on Thursday evening, Zelensky warned that Europe's future security architecture cannot be discussed until Russia's war against Ukraine ends and guarantees for Kyiv are obtained. 'Much depends on when and how the war in Ukraine ends, and this will affect all other steps,' he said, adding that all these steps will follow the end of the war and security guarantees. According to him, Ukraine is already part of the European security architecture, and possible NATO membership will determine the shape of the continent's future arrangements.
'Kremlin trap' and the meeting in China
Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal in Dublin on Friday called talk of European security before peace a 'mental trap': 'This is what Putin does. He makes us talk among ourselves about our affairs instead of what matters. This is peace.' He urged continued support for Ukraine and increased pressure on Russia amid strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure ahead of winter. In Moscow, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said on November 12 that Russia expects Putin's message to Zelensky to be conveyed in full and will remain in contact with Witkoff and Kushner until the Putin-Trump meeting in China. Moscow is promoting a three-way meeting of Putin, Trump and Xi Jinping ahead of the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18–19, although the arrangements have not yet been confirmed.
'New Yalta' and Moscow's unchanged position
Russia's chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky, after the November 11 talks, compared the prospective settlement to the conferences of World War II: 'The task now is to create a comprehensive security system in Europe that would become a new, modern Yalta and Potsdam.' He stated that a 'just system' could guarantee peace 'for decades and even centuries' provided Russia's demands are taken into account. Medinsky rejected a territorial swap for the border districts occupied by Russia, said Moscow would be satisfied with the outcome of the talks 'only when we win and sign a peace agreement on our terms,' and added: 'Where the Russian flag has been raised, it must not be lowered.' This indicates that Moscow's position on ending the war has remained the same, despite the 'some flexibility' of the parties on disputed territories noted in private by a US official.
The situation against the backdrop of diplomacy
While diplomats discuss the security architecture, strikes on Ukraine continue. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, overnight Russian forces launched 117 drones, including 63 cruise missiles; the attacks, local authorities reported, killed nine people and wounded 61 across the country. In Kyiv, debris from a Russian drone caused a fire at a hospital in the Shevchenkivskyi district, partially destroying its second floor.
