The key facts

  • The decree of November 10 enshrined the goal: GDP of $300 billion by 2030 and $10,000 per capita within the next decade
  • The plan is to attract $450 billion in investments over ten years, raise the share of private and foreign investment to 80%, and create 2 million high-income jobs in industry
  • The economist considers the goal attainable if growth rates are maintained and no crisis occurs: under a scenario of 16% annual growth, GDP would reach $309 billion

What the decree enshrined

On November 10, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed the decree 'On measures to implement national programs aimed at the worthy exaltation of man,' which defined the main directions of the country's development for the coming years. One of the seven national programs is devoted to developing the economy on the basis of high technologies and growth in labor productivity. The President first announced the goal of raising GDP to $300 billion by 2030 on August 28 at the celebrations marking the 35th anniversary of independence; the previous goal had been $240 billion. The new decree enshrines these benchmarks in the national program, and the government has been tasked with preparing mechanisms for achieving them.

Roadmap and investments

By March 2027, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, together with other agencies, must prepare a draft presidential decree with specific mechanisms for achieving the goals. This concerns developing a program titled 'A New Model of Economic Growth and the Transition to Industrial Policy': structural reforms in six main areas, measures to develop at least eight sectors of the economy, removal of barriers for the private sector, and elimination of restrictions in exports — logistics, certification, and access to foreign markets.

Investments and jobs

To implement the economic program, the government plans to attract $450 billion in foreign investment over the next ten years. The Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade has been tasked with developing, by June 2027, a new strategy for attracting foreign investment with an emphasis on modern technologies and high-yield projects; targets for 2027–2030 must be distributed by year, sector, and region. The share of private and foreign investment in the total volume is planned to be raised to 80%. For each major project, a separate passport will be drawn up containing data on the investor, cost, funding sources, timelines, infrastructure needs, expected exports, and new jobs.

A separate goal — 2 million jobs

By 2030, 2 million high-income jobs are planned to be created in industry. The government is to approve criteria for such jobs, determine their number as of October 1, 2026, and distribute new targets by year, region, and sector. The plan provides for the development of dual education taking into account the needs of industrial enterprises, the provision of industrial zones with infrastructure, and the attraction of investment into sectors with high value added. Fulfillment of job-creation plans will be monitored on the basis of employment data, tax and other official reports.

How realistic is the goal: an economist's assessment

Economist Mirkomil Kholboev, back in September, analyzed the attainability of the new goal in his Telegram channel Mirkonomika. He noted that it does not diverge much from the forecasts of international organizations: according to the IMF's updated October forecast, Uzbekistan's nominal GDP in 2030 will be about $276.2 billion, and in 2031 — $304.1 billion. According to his calculations, nominal economic growth in dollar terms has accelerated: 21.1% in 2025 and 26.8% in the first half of 2026, aided by a 1.3 percentage point increase in real growth rates and a 6.1% strengthening of the sum.

Three scenarios

Kholboev considered three scenarios. If the growth rates of 2024–2026 (about 20% per year) were maintained, GDP would reach $389 billion by 2030 — the economist himself called this option 'too optimistic.' If post-pandemic growth rates (16% per year) were maintained, the figure would be $309 billion, meaning the goal would be exceeded. At the average rates of 2017–2025 (9.8% per year), GDP would reach only about $234 billion — below the goal; however, that period included the pandemic and a significant depreciation of the sum. 'If no significant depreciation of the sum occurs in the coming years (especially since it has been strengthening over the past two years) and no major crisis like the pandemic happens, the probability of the economy reaching the $300 billion mark is high,' the economist wrote. He added that if the goal is achieved, Uzbekistan would surpass the 2025 nominal economic size of Qatar, Ukraine, Morocco, Slovakia, and Kuwait. It is important to bear in mind that we are talking about nominal GDP in dollars, whose dynamics depend not only on production but also on inflation and the exchange rate of the national currency.