The key facts
- The EU bought 12.89 million tonnes of Yamal LNG between January and October 2026 — 81% of all deliveries of the project
- Spending of €8.7 billion exceeded the estimate for all of 2025 by 21%
- The ban on imports of Russian LNG under existing long-term contracts takes effect on January 1, 2027
Purchases grow as the ban approaches
In the first ten months of 2026, European Union countries spent, according to an estimate by the environmental organization Urgewald, about €8.7 billion on Russian liquefied natural gas from the Arctic. That is 21% more than the estimated amount for all of 2025 — even though only about 50 days remained until the ban on imports of Russian LNG under existing long-term contracts, scheduled for January 1, 2027.
Yamal remains dependent on European ports
According to data from the energy analytics company Kpler, analyzed by Urgewald, 12.89 million tonnes of LNG from the Yamal project arrived at EU ports between January and October — 6.3% more than a year earlier. The EU accounted for 81% of all deliveries of the project recorded worldwide: a European cargo arrived on average every 1.7 days.
Who buys and how much
In October, the main recipient was France — 5.37 million tonnes, or 70% of EU deliveries. Also among the recipients were Spain (2.91 million tonnes), the Netherlands (1.32 million tonnes) and Portugal (0.22 million tonnes). Over the ten months, the largest single destination remains Belgium: 42 tankers and about 3.1 million tonnes unloaded in Zeebrugge, although no deliveries there were recorded in August, September and October.
Gas is more expensive, not just volumes larger
The rise in spending is explained not only by increased purchases but also by price. In October, the volume of deliveries fell by 11% compared with September, yet their estimated value rose by 2.6% to €839 million: the European gas price benchmark rose to €86.79/MWh — more than double the level before the start of the US and Israel war against Iran.
What the ban means for Moscow and for Brussels
Urgewald believes the ban could deal Moscow a serious logistical and commercial blow: the project's Arctic location makes access to European ports especially valuable, since shipments are carried by specialized Arc7 ice-class tankers, and European terminals allow quick unloading and return. Without access to EU ports, Russia would face longer routes, higher transport costs and fewer options for redirecting cargoes, especially in winter, when navigation along the Northern Sea Route becomes difficult. According to the organization's estimate, the loss of the European market would undermine the economics of Arctic deliveries rather than simply redistribute volumes. In Asia, the largest recipients — China, South Korea and Taiwan — took 18.6% of Yamal deliveries over the ten months. The outcome, however, depends on Moscow's ability to build alternative routes and markets.
Doubts about enforcing the ban
It remains an open question whether EU countries will enforce the ban without exceptions and last-minute concessions — especially against the backdrop of the approaching winter and concerns about energy security. Urgewald's sanctions campaign coordinator Sebastian Rötters urged governments to 'hold the line': 'No backsliding, no new exemptions and no rescue rings for this trade. Almost five years of war — governments must finally switch off the Russian LNG business.' His colleague Alexander Kirk noted that even after abandoning Russian gas, replacing suppliers with those from the US, Norway and Algeria would leave European households vulnerable to price spikes and external political pressure; he called for reducing gas demand through home insulation, heat pumps and renewable energy.
