New Year bonuses under new rules: a two-stage model, targeted bonuses, and who risks being left without payouts

A two-stage model instead of a single December payout

Annual bonuses in most companies are traditionally paid in the second half of December, but if the bonus is tied to the annual result, its size often becomes known only after the financial year is closed — in that case part of the payout is moved to January–February. This was reported by Lyudmila Andronaki, HR director of the K+31 clinic network, in a Life.ru article. According to her, this year more companies will use the two-stage model: a symbolic pre-holiday payout will be made in December to support employee loyalty, while the main part of the annual bonus will follow after the final figures are approved. For business, she explained, this is a way not to promise too much, and for employees — a way to get a clear timeline.

What is enshrined in the rules and what an employee can expect

The bonus rules in force since September 2025 are sometimes perceived as an obligation to pay everyone a '13th salary', but that is not the case, noted Alexander Skarupa, brand director of the event agency Dinamika. Their point is transparency: it is clear what the bonus is awarded for, how it is calculated and when it is paid. At the same time, a disciplinary sanction, in his words, does not give an employer the right to arbitrarily deprive a person of all bonuses. Economist Viktor Mangazeev pointed out that the annual bonus is not enshrined in Russian legislation as a mandatory payment: if the indicators and deadlines are specified in an employment contract, collective agreement or bonus regulation, the bonus becomes part of the remuneration, but with a vague wording — 'may be paid at the manager's discretion' — demanding it is pointless. As for timing, the main wave of payouts, as usual, will fall at the end of the year — together with the December salary or in January based on the closed financial year.

Who is most likely to be paid, and who faces cuts

Bonuses this year will be targeted, Lyudmila Andronaki believes: the most likely recipients of full annual bonuses are employees in critically important functions, including sales and customer service with overfulfilled plans, production, logistics, IT, engineering and technical specialists, as well as key experts without whom the company cannot implement strategic projects. According to surveys cited by the publication, a significant share of employers either does not plan annual bonuses or has abandoned them compared with last year. At risk are employees of industries with thin margins and dependence on consumer demand: retail, tourism, hospitality, the advertising and PR market, as well as the automotive business. Viktor Mangazeev added that the best chances of generous bonuses belong to employees of large financial institutions, mining and raw-materials companies, the IT sector and, possibly, workers at industrial and defense enterprises. At the same time, he expects that a significant share of employers will abandon New Year bonuses altogether — due to financial results and cost savings: expensive credit, declining margins and a cooling economy force businesses to cut precisely the optional expenses. Alexander Skarupa, for his part, believes it is too early to say that in one industry bonuses will necessarily grow while in another they will be cut: two companies in the same field may have completely different results. These are experts' expectations, not decisions already made by employers.