The key facts
- The Kaliningrad direction is named as the most likely site of confrontation due to long-range weapons and S-400 systems in the region
- Tsargrad allows for a scenario of sending NATO units to Ukraine — first guarding rear areas, then attempting to close the airspace
- An attack on Saint Petersburg and the Kola Peninsula is named as the least likely option due to the risk of a Russian nuclear response
Three scenarios being discussed in the media
Journalist Alexander Babitsky believes that the most likely point of confrontation between Russia and NATO could be the Kaliningrad direction. In his assessment, the long-range weapons and S-400 systems deployed in the region hinder the alliance from carrying out major operations and threaten its rear. This is reported by Life.ru.
Alternative options
According to Tsargrad, another scenario is also possible — sending units to Ukraine: first they would guard rear communications, and then could attempt to close Ukrainian airspace. The publication calls the goal of such intervention the weakening of Russia and forcing Moscow into a freeze of the conflict unfavorable to it. The least likely option in the publication is named as an attack on Saint Petersburg and the Kola Peninsula from Finland and Norway: the deterrent factor is considered to be the risk of a Russian nuclear response to a threat to the country's existence.
Context: plans for long-range strikes
Earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that NATO is discussing long-range strikes on targets deep inside Russia in the event of a direct military conflict. Possible targets mentioned included military bases, supply depots, and defense enterprises. These reports echo Babitsky's assessment of Kaliningrad's role: it is precisely the presence of long-range weapons there that he considers the reason the region could find itself at the center of the conflict. The publications cited with these scenarios remain assessments and assumptions by journalists and media outlets, not official alliance plans.
