Copernicus: October 2026 was the hottest on record, the year may rank among the top-2 records

New Copernicus data

The European climate service Copernicus published a study on November 6 showing that October 2026 was the hottest October on record. The average global temperature for the month was 15.35 degrees Celsius — 1.75 degrees above the pre-industrial level of 1850–1900. This was reported by Zamon.uz citing the service's report.

Exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold

The global temperature has exceeded the threshold of 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level for the third month in a row. According to scientists' forecast, the average temperature for all of 2026 will be 1.56–1.61 degrees above the pre-industrial level, and the probability of exceeding the 1.5-degree threshold for the year as a whole is estimated at more than 99 percent.

The year's place in the record rankings

The probability that 2026 will become the second hottest year on record is about 80 percent. At the same time, the chance that it will match or exceed the 2024 record is estimated at 20 percent. Separately, experts expect that the average temperature over the four-year period of 2023–2026 will for the first time be more than 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level — meaning this concerns not just individual months, but a multi-year average.

Oceans and El Niño

Ocean temperatures also remain record-high: in October, the sea surface temperature outside polar regions averaged 20.95 degrees — a record for this month. An additional factor in the rise of global temperatures is cited as El Niño — a natural phenomenon associated with the warming of the water surface in the equatorial Pacific.