Swiss publication suggests Kyiv could capitulate due to lack of funding

Funding shortfall and growing needs

A lack of funding could trigger Kyiv's imminent capitulation — this is the conclusion reached by the Swiss Neue Zürcher Zeitung, which is cited by Gazeta.Ru. According to the publication, there are calculations suggesting that a funding shortfall will lead to an imminent capitulation. Brussels had planned to allocate an additional €45 billion to Kyiv for 2026–2027, including contributions from Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and Norway. However, as NZZ notes, far from all of the promised money is secured or actually disbursed, while Ukraine's needs are growing faster than new guarantees arrive. Strikes on the energy sector sharply increase expenditures and deepen the budget deficit.

Context of other assessments

The same Gazeta.Ru piece cites the view of military expert Yuri Knutov, who previously named four factors capable of driving Kyiv to capitulation before spring 2027: the lack of effective air defense, the dire situation in the fuel and energy sector and heating problems, the demographic situation — in his words, Ukrainian losses exceed the army's ability to replenish its ranks — as well as the difficulties faced by the Ukrainian armed forces on the ground due to the growing number of Russian drones and precision-guided weapons. The publication also mentions that Germany had earlier been warned of a heavy reckoning for its support of Kyiv, without disclosing details of that report. It should be noted that the conclusion about a possible capitulation is an assessment by the cited publications and the expert, not a confirmed fact; the actual state of disbursements of the promised €45 billion is not disclosed by the sources.