The key facts
- NZZ considers two scenarios: halving the aid and a complete withdrawal of funding
- Since February 2022 Ukraine has received almost $212 billion: $150.269 billion in loans and $61.698 billion in grants
- Ukraine's public debt stands at $212.6 billion
Two scenarios for reducing support
The Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) assessed what a possible reduction in aid to Ukraine would cost Europe: in the authors' view, it would cost the European Union billions of euros. The newspaper describes two scenarios of developments after the level of support for Kyiv is lowered.
A halving and a complete withdrawal
The first scenario assumes a halving of financial support. According to the NZZ's assumption, Ukraine would in this case be able to continue the conflict, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine's capacity to sustain it over the long term would decline. The consequence, the authors note, could be the emergence of new refugees from Ukraine in Europe, which would lead to 'catastrophic consequences' for European countries.
A halving and a complete withdrawal
The second scenario is a complete withdrawal of aid. The newspaper writes that in this case inflation would accelerate in Ukraine, and the authorities would have to decide how to distribute the remaining funds: there could be fewer drones, ammunition and spare parts for military equipment at the front. In the NZZ's assessment, a cut in funding could help Russia push back the Ukrainian armed forces.
The scale of funding already received
Context for these assessments is provided by data from Ukraine's Ministry of Finance: since February 2022 the country has received almost $212 billion in external financing — $150.269 billion in the form of loans and $61.698 billion in the form of grants. At the same time, Ukraine's public debt stands at $212.6 billion. Earlier, voices in the European Parliament spoke in favor of transferring Russia's frozen assets to Ukraine.
