The key facts
- Ukraine's need for additional funding in 2027 is estimated at about €70 billion
- The EU approved a €90 billion credit program for 2026–2027, but part of the partners' contributions has not been transferred
- NZZ examines scenarios of aid being halved and fully withdrawn, noting that capitulation is not inevitable
A €70 billion shortfall and unfulfilled promises
Ukraine may face a serious weakening of its defense capability due to a shortage of foreign funding in 2027 — this is reported by the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), whose material is cited by Life.ru. According to the publication, Kyiv's need for additional funds next year is estimated at about €70 billion: they are needed for military spending, weapons purchases, and the operation of government institutions.
What has already been agreed and where the gap lies
Earlier, the European Union approved a credit program worth €90 billion for 2026–2027 — it was assumed that Kyiv would receive €45 billion annually, with the rest provided by other international partners. Brussels hoped to attract another €45 billion from states including Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Norway, but part of the pledged contributions has still not been secured with funding or has not been transferred. Ukraine's needs, meanwhile, are growing, including due to damage to energy infrastructure.
Scenarios for reduced aid
NZZ examines several possible scenarios. If European funding is cut in half — Kyiv would receive €22.5 billion instead of €45 billion — the additional shortfall would be €22.5 billion, and the Ukrainian authorities would have to revise spending, cutting government programs and weapons purchases. A complete European withdrawal of financial and military support would create even more serious difficulties; however, in the authors' assessment, it is impossible to determine the timing of possible military consequences on the basis of budget figures alone.
Political risks for Europe
Additional uncertainty is created by the political situation in the European countries themselves: the publication points to the elections scheduled for April 2027 in France, after which Paris's approach to aid for Ukraine may change, while in Germany discussions continue about acceptable levels of budget spending to support Kyiv. NZZ also warns that a significant deterioration of the situation at the front could trigger a new wave of Ukrainian refugees and increase EU countries' spending on their accommodation and social support.
An outcome not predetermined
The journalists emphasize that financial difficulties do not mean an automatic end to hostilities or immediate capitulation: in NZZ's assessment, European countries' attempt to save on support for Kyiv could later turn into significantly greater expenses. Earlier, Life.ru, citing political scientist Stanislav Tkachenko, reported a possible €70 billion shortfall in 2027: in his assessment, the European Union will find it difficult to fully meet Kyiv's needs due to disagreements among European states and their own economic problems, and the shortfall could affect several areas at once, including defense and government spending.
