TRT World Forum in Istanbul discusses the cost of rebuilding the Middle East

Panel on post-war economies at the Istanbul forum

The economic consequences of conflicts in the Middle East, financing post-war reconstruction, uncertainty in global markets and risks to financial stability were the main topics of a session at the TRT World Forum 2026 in Istanbul. The tenth forum is being held at the Istanbul Congress Center under the theme 'A World Without a Center: Who Leads When the Rules Run Out?'. The panel was titled 'Toward an Uneasy Recovery: National Economies After the Wars in the Middle East', and its moderator was Auskar Surbakti, Anadolu reports.

Reconstruction cost estimates

The discussion featured former OECD Secretary-General Ángel Gurría, chief economist and head of the European Centre for Policy Studies Fabian Zuleeg, honorary professor at University College London Steve Keen, and Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri. According to Gurría's estimate, Lebanon will need about $20 billion for reconstruction, Gaza at least $75 billion, and Syria roughly three times as much. He stressed that no single country or institution can bear this burden alone: contributions will be required from multilateral and regional development banks, the US, the EU, the countries of the Persian Gulf and national governments. In his words, the capital of the Gulf states could play a particularly important role in financing the region's reconstruction.

The situation in Lebanon and risks for Europe

Mitri said that Israel's occupation of Lebanese territories continues and that attacks have left many villages uninhabitable. He called the situation of displaced persons one of Lebanon's most acute problems and stressed that infrastructure must be rebuilt for them to return. At the same time, he said, 'however devastating these conflicts may be, and however much they divide our society, recovery and rebuilding are always possible.' Zuleeg noted that the impact of Middle Eastern instability on global markets and trade will depend mainly on how long the conflicts last. In his assessment, energy prices are already creating economic problems for Europe: there are no supply restrictions yet, but prolonged instability could lead to shortages. He also pointed to the risks of sluggish economic growth, high inflation and disruptions to trade routes, adding that events in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine are changing Europe's economic and defence policies.

Criticism of the focus on private debt

Steve Keen said the world economy pays excessive attention to public debt, while private borrowing is one of the main hidden drivers of financial instability. According to his figures, over 70 years the public debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 63% to 75%, while the private debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 55% to 155%. He believes that traditional economic policy has largely ignored the growing risks of private debt, and that speculative operations of the private financial sector and its financing of the military-industrial sector also pose significant risks to the global economy.