The key facts

  • Climatologist Alexey Kokorin: no significant El Niño effect is expected for Russia
  • The accuracy of a year-long forecast is higher if the start is given in the La Niña phase — Australian climatologists came to this conclusion
  • The warm phase contributed to the temperature records of 2023–2024 and is affecting the global grain market

Assessment for Russia

The natural phenomenon El Niño will not have a significant impact on Russia's climate. This was stated in an interview with RIA Novosti by climate expert at the Russian environmental foundation 'Nature and People' Alexey Kokorin. 'As for Russia, no significant effect of any kind is expected here,' the climatologist noted.

What is known about forecast accuracy

Australian climatologists previously published a study showing that El Niño and La Niña can be predicted with greater confidence a year before their peak when the Pacific Ocean is in the La Niña phase at the start of the forecast. Calculations begun against the backdrop of La Niña consistently hit the mark even a year later, while forecasts made from the ocean's neutral state were wrong significantly more often.

Context

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cold phases of a single natural oscillation in tropical latitudes, known as the Southern Oscillation. The names were given by Peruvian fishermen: the warm water that arrived at the shores just before Christmas they called 'the boy' (El Niño in Spanish). Every few years, the oscillation reshapes the planet's climate: some regions get downpours and floods, others droughts and wildfires. The warm phase contributed to the string of temperature records in 2023–2024, and weather anomalies are affecting the global grain market. Earlier, the UN cited catastrophic consequences of El Niño for Africa. Kokorin's statement concerns Russia specifically: no assessments of consequences for other regions were given in the comment.