Scientists Find a Way to Predict El Niño Almost a Year Ahead: Forecasts from the La Niña Phase Are More Reliable
Researchers from CSIRO and the University of Melbourne have established that the accuracy of long-range El Niño and La Niña forecasts depends on the initial state of the Pacific Ocean: forecasts launched during the La Niña phase remain reliable even 12 months ahead. This follows from an analysis of more than 7,500 historical ENSO forecasts, published in Science Advances. Meanwhile, the WMO warns that the current El Niño could be unprecedented in strength, with its impacts lasting until 2027.
Sevara Azamova