The key facts

  • The number of self-employed in Russia grew from 8.52 million in September 2023 to more than 17.6 million in September 2026
  • Forecast: 20 million by 2027 and 22–23 million by the end of 2028
  • The self-employment regime experiment ends at the end of 2028

Growth forecast

The number of self-employed people in Russia may surpass the 20 million mark in 2027 and reach 22–23 million by the end of 2028. This forecast was given to the publication Gazeta.Ruby Igor Balynin, Candidate of Economic Sciences and associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. In his estimate, by the end of 2026 the figure will approach 18 million.

Three-year dynamics

The forecast is based on steady growth: over three years, the number of payers of the professional income tax has more than doubled — from 8.52 million in September 2023 to more than 17.6 million in September 2026. Balynin attributes this primarily to the simplicity of registration and operation: the status is registered remotely, the 'My Tax' app allows issuing receipts without buying a cash register, and no tax return is required. The regime does not restrict a person from other work, which makes it possible to combine salaried employment with additional earnings — for example, selling self-made goods or providing services in one's free time. Among the most common areas, the expert highlighted repairs, construction, passenger transportation, and renting out housing.

Terms of the regime and its future

The professional income tax rate is 4% for payments from individuals and 6% for payments from organizations and sole proprietors. Wages from one's main place of work do not fall under the professional income tax, so the regime can be combined with an employment contract. Balynin expects that the parameters of the regime after the experiment ends at the end of 2028 will be determined taking into account the accumulated experience and feedback from the self-employed themselves. Thus, the specific working conditions for millions of payers after 2028 remain undetermined — this is a matter of future decisions, not of adopted changes. Earlier, the same publication reported how self-employed people can obtain a sick leave certificate.