Europe assesses consequences of Trump's midterm election defeat

«Mad dog» instead of «lame duck»

The Democratic victory in the US midterm elections has prompted European officials to assess the consequences for Brussels. As reported by Euronews citing an analysis by its own correspondents, there are concerns within the EU that Trump, whose domestic agenda will face resistance from Congress, will become more active in foreign policy, where he has greater room for maneuver. One EU diplomat summarized this by saying: «he will be more of a «mad dog» than a «lame duck»», adding that «the mood is quite realistic: no one expects current challenges to disappear».

Ukraine and hopes for assistance

At the same time, EU diplomats suggest that a Democratic Congress could pressure Trump to maintain military support for Ukraine, including the supply of air defense systems and ballistic missile interceptors, and to take a tougher stance toward Moscow. «We hope this change will lead to more uninterrupted delivery of military aid to Ukraine,» Euronews quoted one diplomat. According to the publication's correspondent in Helsinki, Finnish officials consider Democrats more open to Europe and believe that the scale of the victory will make governance through executive orders more difficult. One official working on foreign policy even speculated about possible reshuffles in the US administration and expressed hope for the departure of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which could pave the way for the transfer of Patriot interceptors. In Brussels, a working meeting is taking place on the day of publication involving the US, Germany, France, the UK, NATO, and the Ukrainian ambassador—a prelude to negotiations between representatives of Ukraine, Russia, and the US in Abu Dhabi next week. European officials assess the prospects as limited but hope for agreements on prisoner exchanges and protection of energy infrastructure.

EU candidates: Serbia, Georgia, and Turkey under scrutiny

On Wednesday, candidate countries received annual assessments from Brussels. According to Euronews, Serbia, Georgia, and Turkey came under increased attention as the European Commission increasingly considers how closely candidates align with EU foreign and defense policies. Head of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas announced that in January, EU foreign ministers will conduct «a deep review» of new measures against Georgia aimed at halting Tbilisi's democratic backsliding. This came one day after the Georgian prime minister, in a tough interview with Euronews, failed to explain how he intends to improve relations with Brussels.

Dispute over «associated membership»

Berlin and Brussels continue to debate what «associated membership» means and who deserves it. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who first introduced the term, believes Kyiv should receive this status so that Ukraine can feel some benefits of membership before full accession. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen views this status for Canada as a premium partnership without full membership. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, after initial hesitation, named June 2027 as the deadline for formalizing this framework and intends to visit Brussels to finalize the matter. An Euronews correspondent notes that the confrontation between Merz and von der Leyen is particularly sharp since both leaders are Germans from the same party, and «the G7 economic leader cannot come to Brussels and leave empty-handed».

Other news from Brussels and Europe

On Wednesday, the European Parliament supported relaxing the 2035 car emissions target from 100% to 87.5% — a compromise advanced by the center-right EPP together with socialists and liberals. This marks a significant shift compared to 2023, when the EU agreed to effectively end sales of new gasoline and diesel cars by 2035; the publication links the shift to growing pressure on the European Commission for flexibility for the automotive industry. Inflation in the eurozone in October reached 4% — a three-year high — amid rising energy prices; prices surged most sharply in Italy, while Germany broke the trend. In Serbia several police officers were arrested, accused of using excessive force against students during anti-government protests in Belgrade last year, the interior ministry reported. The WHO backed clinical trials of two new candidate vaccines against Ebola against the backdrop of an outbreak in several African countries that has claimed more than 5,300 lives.