The key facts

  • Trump reported a drop in oil prices of almost $10 per barrel, linking it to expectations that there will be no war with Iran
  • In October, Brent traded above $100 due to fears of a renewed war in the Middle East
  • OPEC+ earlier agreed on oil production quotas for December

Trump's statement and market context

US President Donald Trump attributed the sharp drop in oil prices to expectations that a resumption of full-scale hostilities against Iran will be avoided. According to him, oil has fallen in price by almost $10 per barrel, which he called a record, because people feel that there will be no war with Iran.The statement was published on his Truth Social page; Gazeta.Ru reports on it. Trump also claims that Iran wants a settlement as soon as possible and that this may happen.

What the drop is measured against

Notably, the decline comes after a period of expensive oil: in October, according to Bloomberg, a barrel of Brent cost more than $100 amid the market's fear of a renewed war in the Middle East, depletion of stocks and a diesel shortage. Thus, the current price fall reflects a change in market sentiment regarding the risk of conflict, rather than a new price plateau.

Analysts' caution and OPEC+ quotas

Not all participants share the market's optimism. Senior oil analyst at Guotai Junan Futures Xuyi Zhao pointed out that the key problem is the absence of guarantees of a full normalization of the situation as supplies grow: in his words, the market is assessing whether the crude can be delivered safely and reliably to its final destination. Against the backdrop of these fluctuations, OPEC+ countries earlier agreed on oil production quotas for December.