The key facts
- Lichtman gives the Democrats more than 90% odds of winning the House of Representatives and 70% of retaking the Senate
- For the midterm elections he did not use his '13 keys' system, relying instead on polls and other factors
- In Michigan he predicts a victory for Abdul El-Sayed, who would be the first Muslim in the US Senate
A new forecast after the high-profile 2024 mistake
American political scientist Allan Lichtman of American University, who became famous for predicting Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 election but got it wrong with Kamala Harris in 2024, is back with a forecast for the midterm elections, which will take place on Tuesday. The National reports this. In a YouTube video released on Thursday evening, he said the probability of a Democratic victory in the House of Representatives exceeds 90%, and he raised his estimate of the Democrats' chances of retaking the Senate from 67% to 70%. Both chambers are currently controlled by Republicans; if the Democrats win both, Trump's power will be noticeably weakened.
Without the '13 keys'
Notably, for the midterms Lichtman did not apply his famous '13 keys' system, developed in 1981 together with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok based on an analysis of presidential campaigns going back to 1860. Instead, he relied on fresh polls, research on issue agendas, Trump's approval ratings, and 'intangible' factors. When his son Sam, co-host of his YouTube show, asked about the possibility of polling errors, Lichtman replied that he does not base his forecast on polls alone. He also noted that in the last midterm elections Democrats exceeded turnout expectations, and that they have an edge in early voting and voter enthusiasm. In the gubernatorial races, he said, Democrats will likely 'take the lead or break even.'
The Michigan race
Separately, Lichtman assessed the closely watched Senate race in Michigan between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers. Despite the Islamophobia directed against El-Sayed, he believes the former health official will become the first Muslim elected to the US Senate. 'You would think this country would be above religious bigotry, but Trump has brought us down to the lowest level,' Lichtman said, adding that as a Jew he recognizes in such attacks the centuries-old rhetoric used against Jews. He called Michigan a swing state leaning toward the Democrats: Biden won it in 2020 by a margin of 150,000 votes.
Reputation after 2024
Lichtman's forecast draws attention also because his reputation has taken a hit: in September 2024 he predicted a Harris victory, and on election night he had to admit his mistake live on YouTube — for the first time since 1981. He later explained that public criticism of Biden within the Democratic Party 'tarnished' everyone associated with him, and that the abundance of disinformation on social media may have made the electorate 'irrational,' undermining the premises of his system. After that he did not retreat from public life: his YouTube channel grew to 190,000 subscribers, and his new book about twelve presidents who transformed the country has been published, though he has not yet made a forecast for the 2028 presidential election.
