SpaceX needs NASA contracts less and less — what this changes for American spaceflight

The balance of power between SpaceX and the government is shifting

American journalist and space industry columnist In a new article, Eric Berger writes, that the relationship between SpaceX and the US government is changing significantly: the company, which once actively competed for government contracts, now no longer needs most of them to the same degree. According to his observation, over the past 15 years SpaceX provided the US with access to space in cases where other contractors missed deadlines, exceeded budgets, or could not complete the task, and offered a more reliable solution than its competitors. Now, Berger notes, the balance is shifting the other way: SpaceX is increasingly less interested in government orders, although exceptions may remain for data transmission systems like Starshield, which serves military communications and surveillance.

Concrete signs of reduced cooperation

Several concrete decisions point to the reduction in cooperation. SpaceX has told NASA that it will end crewed flights of the Crew Dragon spacecraft no later than 2030 — even though this spacecraft is currently the primary means of regular and reliable delivery of NASA astronauts to the International Space Station. In addition, the company has stopped selling commercial Falcon 9 launch services for missions scheduled after 2028, and in the future may stop using this rocket for NASA orders as well. Last week, SpaceX also told the US Space Force that it will not participate in a competition for three new launches planned for the late 2020s — these are additional contracts beyond the company's existing obligations to the American military.

The problem with deorbiting the station and lunar projects

The changes also affect plans for the International Space Station. At the end of October, at a meeting of NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, Kent Rominger pointed to a likely problem: the American Dragon-based vehicle being built to deorbit the station, if launched after 2030, may require a different type of rocket to reach orbit — since by that time the Falcon 9 in this configuration may no longer be available. Another change concerns lunar projects: SpaceX previously provided American companies building small landers for the future lunar base under NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program with preliminary launch cost estimates (the so-called ROM — Rough Order of Magnitude estimates); the publication does not say whether this practice will continue.

What practically changes

The essence of the shift, according to the publication, is that NASA and the military, accustomed to viewing SpaceX as a backup and most reliable contractor, now face the opposite situation: the company is reducing the services available to the government — from crewed flights to commercial Falcon 9 launches on long time horizons. For now, this concerns decisions and statements by the company itself and the columnist's assessments; how NASA and the Space Force will adjust their plans in response is not reported in the sources.