The key facts

  • Vucic lost the parliamentary elections in Serbia on October 25, while Lula won in Brazil
  • Flavio Bolsonaro left for Florida after his defeat; the State Department issued visas to him and his family
  • Trump has the lowest approval rating ahead of midterm elections of any president since Truman in 1946

Defeats for allies in Serbia and Brazil

On November 3, the US will hold midterm congressional elections in which voters choose representatives of both chambers. Trump's Republican Party currently holds a majority in both chambers. But elections in other countries have already been decided, and, as Deutsche Welle notes, they brought Trump unpleasant news: in Serbia and Brazil, most voters cast their ballots for left-wing forces. These results will not directly affect the American elections, but they weaken Trump's position on the international stage.

Serbia: losing an ally in Europe

In Serbia, Trump's ally and incumbent president Aleksandar Vucic lost the parliamentary elections on October 25 to the Student List movement. Vucic had ruled the country since 2017, and shortly before the elections he resigned in order to run for prime minister, a post he had already held in 2014–2017. He repeatedly said that he and Trump were like-minded people: the president's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., visited Vucic in Belgrade before the US presidential election in November 2024, and again a few months later. The conservative CPAC conference, closely tied to the MAGA movement, announced a meeting in Belgrade in November where Vucic was to be a key speaker — whether it will go ahead is unknown.

Rapprochement with Moscow and the war in Ukraine

Vucic and Trump were also brought together by their attitude toward Russia: the Serbian leader did not join EU sanctions after Russia launched its war against Ukraine, Belgrade continues to buy Russian raw materials, and the state media under his control portrayed Russia in a more favorable light than the EU. Trump, for his part, is increasingly leaning toward Moscow as well: his special envoy Steve Witkoff recently called Putin a 'humanitarian,' and the president himself admitted in an interview that he finds it easier to get along with Putin than with Volodymyr Zelensky. In DW's assessment, with the departure of Vucic's government, Trump loses one of the few like-minded allies in Europe.

Brazil: Bolsonaro's defeat and departure to Florida

In Brazil, incumbent president Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva won, although Trump's camp had counted on the success of Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, whom Lula defeated back in 2022. Flavio Bolsonaro is a suspect in Brazil in a corruption and money laundering case; after losing the elections he left for Florida, and the State Department issued entry visas to him and his family despite the ongoing investigation. Bolsonaro himself refused to accept the defeat and claimed there were violations in the voting. Trump backed this line: 'Honestly, it looked like another rigged election,' he said on Monday. Analyst Lawrence Haas of the American Foreign Policy Council notes that Trump was displeased by the defeat of both Bolsonaros and has no warm feelings toward Lula, so relations will remain 'cool at best.'

Israel: the outcome is still unclear

There is a chance the outcome of the Israeli elections will suit Trump: with more than 96% of votes counted, the right-wing bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu is ahead, but he has lost his majority, and coalition negotiations will be difficult. Trump and Netanyahu are longtime allies: in February of this year they jointly launched the war against Iran, and in 2018, during Trump's first presidential term, the US moved its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. If Netanyahu holds on to power, in DW's assessment, little will change in the relationship; how things would develop with a different Israeli government remains unclear.

What this means for the midterms

In Haas's view, foreign defeats will not affect the midterm elections: Americans will vote based on domestic issues and their attitude toward the ruling party. But the domestic situation is not favorable to Trump either: according to him, Trump has the lowest approval rating of any president ahead of midterm elections since Harry Truman in 1946, Americans are concerned about the affordability of goods and services, and they are firmly opposed to a US war with Iran.