The key facts

  • On October 20 alone, Greek authorities registered 710 people in 14 boats, with hundreds more arriving the next day
  • The crossing from the Tobruk area to Crete costs up to $4,000 and takes about a day and a half
  • According to IOM, about 950,000 migrants and refugees are registered in Libya

The rise of the Crete route

In 2026, nearly 20,000 people attempted to cross the Mediterranean from Libya to the Greek island of Crete — the route from eastern Libya to Greece has become a significant corridor of irregular migration to Europe, reports Deutsche Welle, citing the Greek newspaper Kathimerini. On October 20 alone, Greek authorities registered 710 people in 14 boats, and hundreds more arrived the next day. Most boats depart from areas around Tobruk, a port city on Libya's eastern Mediterranean coast; the crossing costs migrants up to $4,000 and takes about a day and a half.

Why the route has shifted

The popularity of the destination is partly explained by pressure on alternative paths: after eastern Libyan armed forces moved against smugglers heading to Italy in 2023, the networks reorganized — they now use smaller boats and set course for Crete. According to the Swiss analytical center Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, groups previously engaged mainly in goods, vehicles, or drugs have also entered the human smuggling business. Chatham House researchers note that conflict and instability in Libya have created a favorable environment for migrant smuggling and human trafficking, which has increased the number of migrants entering Libya and expanded the country's 'conflict economy.'

The political dimension

Since 2014, Libya has been divided into two parts: in the west, a UN-recognized administration operates in Tripoli, while in the east, in Tobruk, a second leadership relies on Khalifa Haftar. Deutsche Welle notes that there is no proven link between the Haftar networks and smugglers on this coast, but, as GIGA researcher Hager Ali explained, even the appearance of influence over this market carries political weight: high-profile operations against smugglers are presented as a sign of legitimacy and the ability to 'restore order and curb migration.' In late October, the Tobruk government signed a maritime agreement with Turkey — a deal Turkey had previously concluded with the Tripoli government; Greece rejects the agreement, believing it infringes on its economic rights around Crete and Rhodes. A direct link between the agreement and the increase in migrants on Crete has not been established, although Ali suggests that migrants may be used as leverage in geopolitical conflicts. Development geography expert Andreas Dittmann also points to a contradiction in EU policy: cooperation with Libyan structures curbs migration but simultaneously strengthens their local power.

The situation of migrants in Libya

The scale of the problem is illustrated by a report from the International Organization for Migration (IOM): according to data from May and June of this year, about 950,000 migrants and refugees are registered in Libya. Many have limited access to healthcare, lack residence permits and work permits — this increases their dependence on informal markets and the risk of exploitation.