The key facts

  • Inflation in Italy reached 5.4% in October, up from 4.2% in September — the main contribution came from rising energy prices, from +22.6% to +31.4%
  • GDP in the third quarter of 2026 was virtually unchanged (+0.02%) after growth of 0.2% in the second and 0.3% in the first quarter
  • ING analysts said the result calls into question the achievability of the government's 1% growth target

A sharp price surge and stalled growth

Inflation in Italy in October 2026 stood at 5.4% year-on-year, accelerating from 4.2% in September, the national statistics agency Istat reported on Friday, AFP writes. Price increases affected energy, food and transport. The agency stressed that the acceleration in inflation is 'mainly linked to rising energy prices' — from +22.6% in September to +31.4% in October — which 'continues to be influenced by the international geopolitical context.' According to AFP, the surge in inflation since the start of the war in the Middle East has already triggered numerous demonstrations in Italy against the rising cost of living.

GDP is not growing, government targets in question

Preliminary official data published the same day showed that Italy's GDP in the third quarter remained virtually unchanged compared with the previous quarter: growth was a mere +0.02%. This is slightly below the forecasts of Factset and Bloomberg, which had expected expansion of 0.1%. The trend has been deteriorating throughout the year: in the second quarter of 2026 GDP grew by 0.2%, and in the first by 0.3%. ING analysts said this result 'calls into question the achievability' of the government's 1% growth target. Notably, earlier this month the Bank of Italy, on the contrary, raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 0.6% to 0.9%, stating that geopolitical factors had proved less serious than expected — meaning the regulator's revision diverges from the actual stagnation of the third quarter and the acceleration of inflation.