The key facts

  • Queues at exchange offices, in the expert's opinion, are not the main factor behind the ruble's weakening — the rate is determined by major market participants
  • Public demand for currency is seasonal: it rises before vacations and the New Year
  • For the end of the year, Zeltser allows for the dollar at around 84 rubles, the euro below 94 rubles, and the yuan at about 12.5 rubles

Queues at exchange offices do not move the exchange rate

Mass purchases of dollars and euros by the public, as a rule, are not the main cause of the ruble's weakening. The exchange rate is far more strongly influenced by export earnings, import payments, and the operations of major market participants. This was told to Gazeta.Ru by Candidate of Economic Sciences and stock market expert at BCS World of Investments Mikhail Zeltser. Gazeta.Ru.

Hype as a lagging signal

According to Zeltser, during periods of sharp fluctuations, the actions of ordinary citizens can only reinforce a movement in the exchange rate that has already begun. Increased interest in currency exchange does not in itself mean that its growth will continue: 'If there is a queue at exchange offices, it means the main movement in exchange rates has already finished or is coming to an end, and one should expect the currency pairs to move back.' A buyer who relies only on the hype risks buying currency after it has already risen significantly in price.

Seasonality and the real market players

The expert noted the seasonality of public demand for currency: it increases before summer vacations and the New Year. During these periods, purchases may somewhat exceed sales, but they usually do not determine the overall picture of the market. Among the main market participants, Zeltser singled out exporters, importers, institutional investors, and major operators; currency operations under the budget rule also matter.

Forecast for the end of the year

For the end of the year, Zeltser allows for levels of around 84 rubles per dollar, below 94 rubles per euro, and near 12.5 rubles per yuan. At the same time, he warned about the possibility of significant short-term deviations: even before the end of autumn, the dollar could temporarily rise above 85 rubles. Such a spike, in the expert's assessment, does not necessarily mean a sustained change in the exchange rate trend.