The key facts

  • Fitch believes the outcome of the midterm elections will not change the underlying drivers of fiscal pressure in the US
  • The federal budget deficit in fiscal 2026 is almost $2 trillion, or 6.1% of GDP
  • A Democratic victory in Congress, according to the agency, raises the risk of confrontation over the debt ceiling

Debt will grow regardless of the composition of Congress

The United States is likely to face continued fiscal pressure regardless of the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections: rising spending on social obligations and the cost of debt servicing threaten to increase the national debt, Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday in a report cited by Anadolu. According to the agency, without policy changes, structural pressure will lead to a further deterioration in the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Deficit figures

The federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 reached almost $2 trillion, equivalent to 6.1% of GDP. Taking into account the balances of state and local governments (about 1% of GDP), the general government deficit, according to Fitch's forecast, will widen to 7.5% of GDP in 2026 and 7.6% in 2027. The agency notes that such a deficit would be the highest among sovereigns rated in the 'AA' category.

The political factor

Fitch separately warned that Democratic control of one or both chambers of Congress could raise the likelihood of political confrontation over the federal debt ceiling and government funding, which could intensify pressure on the already large deficit. At the same time, the underlying drivers of the fiscal situation will persist no matter which party controls Congress. The agency also noted that the fiscal priorities of both major parties could add strain to the budget if they are not offset by other measures.