The key facts
- Welfare spending is forecast to rise from £353 billion this year to £431 billion in 2031/32
- The Treasury disputed the interpretation of Chancellor John Healey's words as a promise of cuts before the election
- Key reform reports are expected in November
A pledge without a deadline
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said he wants to cut welfare spending BBC News reports.
Contradiction over the Chancellor's words
The statement came amid disagreements within the government. Chancellor John Healey said on the Today Programme on Radio 4 that a cut in benefits spending would happen: several Treasury sources disputed the interpretation of these words as a promise to cut spending before the next election, and Downing Street later said it
What is known about the scale of spending
According to Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) figures cited by the BBC, welfare spending will rise by £19 billion this year to £353 billion, and by 2031/32 will reach £431 billion, driven mainly by health-related benefits and payments to pensioners. Of the 2031/32 total, £209.8 billion goes to pensioners, including the state pension and winter fuel payments, £110.7 billion to universal credit and comparable legacy benefits, and £69.6 billion to disability benefits such as personal independence payments. The government has already promised to reform the state pension.
Two reports expected
The government's concrete proposals are expected after the publication in November of two major reports: a review of disability benefits co-chaired by minister Stephen Timms, and a review of young people not in employment, education or training (Neet) led by former minister Alan Milburn. Both reviews were announced by former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer after his attempt to substantially change the welfare system, including restricting eligibility for some health-related benefits, triggered a mass rebellion by Labour MPs and forced the government to back down in June 2025. Burnham called the publication of the Milburn report
Image source, Reuters


