Boeing shares fell 9% after a cautious production ramp-up forecast

The market did not appreciate Boeing's caution

Boeing shares fell about 9% on Tuesday after the company's leadership gave more cautious timelines for ramping up production than Wall Street had expected. The decline deepened after remarks by CEO Kelly Ortberg, which suggests analysts had been counting on a faster pace, euronews notes.

Timelines for the 737 MAX and cash flow

Ortberg said that 737 MAX output will not reach 52 aircraft per month until the second half of 2027: first the company needs to 'stabilize' at a rate of 47 aircraft per month, which, according to him, will take until next year. He cited the need for greater predictability in the production of wings and fuselages at the Kansas facility. 'What matters far more to us is getting this production ramp right than the exact month we hit the next milestone,' euronews quoted him as saying. Investors see raising 737 MAX output as a key driver of revenue and profit growth, which is why the leadership's caution triggered a negative market reaction.

Quarterly report: loss narrowed

The remarks came alongside the third-quarter report: the loss amounted to $116 million, compared with $5.3 billion a year earlier — mainly due to delays in the 777X certification. The loss per share was worse than analysts had expected, but the stock barely moved immediately after the report was released. Revenue rose 4% to $24.2 billion thanks to the defense unit and Boeing Global Services, while commercial aircraft deliveries totaled 161 planes — just one more than a year earlier.

Plans and context

Ortberg cited the FAA certification of the 737 MAX 7 and 737 MAX 10 models, as well as the 'transformational' Pentagon contract for next-generation fighters for the US Navy, as evidence of progress. Management expects the 777X to be certified in 2027, with 10–15 such aircraft delivered the following year. Free cash flow, according to the company's forecast, will grow from about $2 billion in 2026 to $6 billion in 2028 and $10 billion in 2029. Ortberg took over Boeing in August 2024, after the two 737 MAX crashes and the January 2024 incident in which a fuselage window blew out mid-flight. Aviation expert Richard Aboulafia of AeroDynamic Advisory, commenting to AFP, assessed the company's progress as 'slow but steady,' adding that the supply chain remains a serious problem only partially within Boeing's control.