The key facts
- BNP Paribas' net profit for Q3 was €3.46 billion, up 13.5%, above the forecast of €3.23 billion
- Income from equities operations rose 50%; the bank announced a €1.3 billion share buyback from November
- BNP holds about €19 billion in French government bonds and assesses the impact of the spread widening as minimal
Profit beat expectations thanks to equities trading
France's largest bank, BNP Paribas, reported net profit of €3.46 billion for the third quarter — up 13.5% year on year and above the average analyst forecast (€3.23 billion), euronews reports. Revenue rose 9.5% to €13.76 billion, with the main driver a 50% increase in income from equities operations — the equities and prime services unit brought in €1.46 billion. Global markets revenue jumped 21.9% to €2.67 billion, approaching the record set in the first quarter of this year. CEO Jean-Laurent Bonnafé described the results as
Strengths and weaknesses of the report
The corporate and investment banking division increased revenue by 16.6% to €5.2 billion, while retail banking grew 3.6% thanks to the interest rate environment and higher fees. The weak spot was vehicle leasing: revenue at Arval and Leasing Solutions fell 29.1% due to declining used-car prices. The cost of risk rose to €964 million (39 basis points), remaining within the bank's 2026 guidance of below 40 basis points. The CET1 ratio stood at 12.9% at the end of September, and the bank expects it to exceed 13% by year-end thanks to the sale of its Moroccan subsidiary BMCI. BNP also announced a €1.3 billion share buyback starting in November, approved by the ECB, and reaffirmed its targets through 2028, including return on tangible equity of 12% this year and above 13% by 2028; a new strategic plan through 2030 will be presented on 2 February. Despite the results, shares were down about 1.5% at the opening of trading in Paris.
The report against the backdrop of a budget crisis
The release of the results coincided with a political and budget crisis in France. As euronews notes, the yield on French ten-year government bonds last week exceeded 5% for the first time since 2002, as a fragmented parliament struggles to push through next year's budget amid mass street protests. On Friday, Moody's kept France's sovereign rating unchanged, but with a negative outlook. Against this backdrop, BNP sought to ease concerns about its exposure to French debt: the bank holds about €19 billion in French government bonds, of which roughly €16 billion are accounted for at amortised cost — under this scheme, fluctuations in market price do not affect capital. According to the bank's estimate, an additional widening of the spread between French and German bonds by 0.5 percentage points would reduce CET1 by only about 0.02 points.
Why the bank is less dependent on France
BNP's additional argument is diversification: the French market accounted for less than 10% of the parent company's pre-tax profit in 2025, roughly half the 2016 level, according to the results presentation. In other words, even amid record yields on French government bonds, the bank asserts that the crisis's direct impact on its capital is limited — both due to the bond accounting treatment and the reduced share of its home market in profits. For now, this is the bank's own assessment, not an independent verification: the market's reaction on the day of the report was muted, with shares slightly lower.
