US begins talks with Myanmar's military government, EU maintains isolation

Washington changes its approach to Myanmar

The US government has begun a cautious rapprochement with Myanmar's military-backed government: since September, two rounds of talks have taken place, involving State Department official Michael Vance. According to Deutsche Welle, American diplomats met with Myanmar officials first in Naypyidaw and then earlier this month in Tokyo. Washington's interests include combating online scam centers, securing the release of imprisoned American businessman Adam Castillo, and potential access to the country's rare earth resources, whose market is currently controlled by China.

The EU does not recognize the junta and extends sanctions

The European Union continues to reject the legitimacy of the military regime and has remained unmoved after the 2025/2026 elections, as a result of which the head of the military, Min Aung Hlaing, became president, with the army retaining control over the political system. EU sanctions cover 105 individuals and 22 entities linked to the military; in April they were extended for another 12 months. At the same time, Brussels maintains Myanmar's preferential trade access — out of concern for workers, mostly young women in the garment industry — while bilateral trade in goods last year amounted to around €4 billion, compared with €3.4 billion in 2019. An official EU spokesperson told DW that the bloc 'continues its policy of non-recognition of the current military regime,' but is 'closely following' the discussions between the US, Japan, ASEAN countries and other actors with representatives of the regime, and supports the ASEAN 'Five-Point Consensus' of 2021, which has still not been fully implemented.

Isolation is falling apart

The civil war triggered by the February 2021 couphas, by estimates, claimed around 100,000 lives, more than 4 million people have been displaced within the country, and insurgents control or contest significant territories. Against this backdrop, Southeast Asian countries are increasingly reconsidering their policy of isolation: several states have already resumed direct diplomatic contacts. Thailand's Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow welcomed the US return to dialogue last week and suggested that substantive discussions on Myanmar's future would take place at the ASEAN summit in Manila next month. The regime itself is also seeking a way out of isolation: in September, Hlaing gave an interview to Time magazine — the first to a major Western outlet since the coup. On October 22, the human rights organization Burma Campaign UK accused the British government of a 'significant shift in approach' after the UK Foreign Office received Myanmar's chargé d'affaires in London, Win Zayar Tun, at an ASEAN diplomatic meeting. According to Intelligence Online, the regime's chargé d'affaires in Brussels, Khin Thida Aye, has also sought contacts with European politicians, including Czech MEP Ondřej Dostál.

A dilemma for Brussels

Kristina Kironska, an expert on EU policy toward Myanmar at Palacký University in Olomouc, told DW that the EU has little reason to follow the American shift: the US strategy 'pursues specific interests,' while key extraction projects for rare earth metals are no longer controlled by the military but by insurgents such as the Kachin Independence Organization in Kachin State, so 'it remains unclear what the US will achieve through talks with the junta.' According to her, the EU abandoning its position would undermine its reputation as a defender of democracy, but 'isolation has achieved relatively little — the question is not whether to engage, but with whom and on what terms.' Sabe So, director of the Prague-based Burma Centre, told DW about the main dilemma: by expanding contacts with the military, the EU risks being marginalized in discussions about the country's future, but it also risks its relations with the democratic opposition and the ethnic resistance forces that control significant territories. She suggested it was possible to keep sanctions in place while expanding diplomacy through ASEAN and the UN, tying any easing of restrictions to humanitarian access and progress toward peace, as well as economic engagement with territories under the control of resistance forces. For now, DW notes, Brussels has little appetite for a fundamental policy overhaul, but that could change as more and more governments open their doors to Myanmar's generals.