Trump backs Netanyahu again ahead of Israel's election: will it help the prime minister?

Trump's endorsement on the eve of the election

US President Donald Trump on Sunday publicly endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the second time in a week, urging Israelis to re-elect him and tying his leadership to Washington's campaign against Iran. In a post on Truth Social, Trump reiterated his support for the politician whom he had called a 'great warrior prime minister' and a key partner in confronting Tehran a week earlier. The endorsement came amid polls showing that the Likud-led bloc under Netanyahu may fail to win 61 of the 120 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset. Elections for all 120 seats will be held on Tuesday.

Will the endorsement help: poll data and analysts' assessments

According to a Channel 12 poll, 64% of respondents said Trump's endorsement would not affect their vote, 17% said it makes them less inclined to support Netanyahu, and only 12% said it strengthens their support for Likud. Israeli analyst Ahron Bregman, a senior lecturer at King's College London, believes Trump's intervention is unlikely to noticeably affect the outcome and may even backfire: in his words, many Israeli voters, including Likud supporters, dislike foreign interference in domestic politics. He also called the endorsement a 'desperate attempt' by Netanyahu to get help from a friend amid the opposition's gains in the polls.

An 'unusual' move and the question of the price

Analyst Ryan Bohl of RANE Network called the endorsement an 'unusual' step, since US presidents usually do not endorse candidates in Israeli elections. In his view, the endorsement may keep traditional Likud voters from defecting to rival right-wing parties and strengthen Netanyahu's position in coalition talks if neither bloc wins a clear majority. Axios, citing American and Israeli sources, reported that Netanyahu personally asked Trump for additional public support and even suggested wording; Likud denied this, although Trump earlier told Newsmax that people in Israel had asked him to intervene. Bregman, meanwhile, doubted the endorsement came free of charge: 'There is no such thing as a free lunch from Trump,' he said, suggesting that Netanyahu may have promised not to attack Iran before the Israeli election and the US midterms. He also noted that Trump's endorsement does not guarantee victory: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whom Trump had backed, lost the parliamentary election in April.

Broader implications

Bohl noted that support for Israel in the US is declining, and this creates political risks for politicians closely tied to the Israeli government. He contrasted Trump's move with Vice President JD Vance's decision not to endorse Netanyahu: in the analyst's view, Vance takes into account growing criticism of Israel among left-wing voters and young conservatives. If Netanyahu remains prime minister, his close ties with the White House may give him more latitude for a hardline regional policy, including possible new strikes on Iran and an expansion of operations in Gaza and Lebanon, although the timing and likelihood of a new attack on Iran remain uncertain. This could also affect Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, where movement restrictions and threats to communities are causing concern.

Why it matters

The outcome of Tuesday's election will determine the composition of Israel's next government and, according to the cited analysts, could influence policy toward Iran, Gaza and the West Bank. For voters, the practical takeaway from the polls is that Trump's endorsement, judging by the Channel 12 figures, barely shifts sentiment, and its effect may show up more in post-election coalition talks. It remains unknown whether Netanyahu has responded in any way to Trump's endorsement — sources leave that question open.