The key facts
- Two men re-arrested on suspicion of aiding Iranian intelligence (Section 3 National Security Act 2023)
- Incident near RAF Fairford on 27 September: three suspicious vans containing petrol, major incident declared, dozens of homes evacuated
- Head of counter-terrorism police Laurence Taylor: 'highly likely Iranian state involvement'; Iran rejects the allegations
Re-arrests
UK counter-terrorism police announced on 20 October the re-arrest of two men on suspicion of aiding a foreign intelligence service — according to police, the investigation is linked to Iran. Those arrested are a 24-year-old British citizen, initially arrested near RAF Fairford base on 27 September, and a 25-year-old dual British-Iranian national, arrested on 1 October in Westminster (according to AFP, both are from London). Both were arrested under Section 3 of the National Security Act 2023. In total, seven men have been arrested in the case; the other five, including a 22-year-old Briton arrested in Westminster on 6 October, remain on police bail. No charges have been brought against anyone so far.
The 27 September Incident
Gloucestershire Police received a call about 'three suspicious vehicles' heading towards RAF Fairford at 00:45 on 27 September. According to AFP, a local farmer reported a group of men with several white vans engaged in 'suspicious' activity. A major incident was declared, dozens of homes were evacuated, and an explosive ordnance disposal team was dispatched to the scene. Petrol was found in three vans near the base; five men were initially arrested on suspicion of violating explosives law, then on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act. Police later reported that no 'improvised explosive devices' were found.
Statements by Authorities
Head of National Counter Terrorism Policing, Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor, stated: 'This remains an active investigation, evidence gathering continues, but our position remains the same: we consider it highly likely that there was Iranian state involvement.' According to him, investigators continue to examine the scale of possible involvement and 'the ambitions behind it.' He added that national security investigations proceed slowly due to their sensitivity and promised to be 'as transparent as possible' when there is an opportunity to share more information.
Political Context
Prime Minister [reference to] Andy Burnham earlier stated that the alleged terrorist plot was 'highly likely coordinated in Iran, almost certainly under the direction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).' Iran rejected the allegations of involvement and summoned the British ambassador in Tehran; the Iranian ambassador in London was also summoned for a diplomatic reprimand.
Withdrawal of American Bombers
According to The National and AFP, the US in early October withdrew all of its B-1 bombers from Fairford base following the incident. A US Department of Defense spokesperson said at the time: 'While operational security prevented us from confirming the movement of our forces in real time, we can now confirm that all American bombers deployed to RAF Fairford have been relocated to their home bases in the US.' According to the outlet, a dozen B-1B Lancers were at the base at the time of the incident; US officials said they were confident there were no operational problems resulting from the aircraft's return. Gazeta.Ru, citing Reuters, notes that the US Air Force used Fairford to carry out strikes on Iran, and in Tehran the base was called a legitimate target for a retaliatory strike.
Expert Opinions
Former US Marine Corps interrogator Jonathan Hackett, speaking on a panel organised by the RUSI think tank, said that the IRGC views Britain as a 'soft target' for sabotage, because Britain is one of the few allies that allows the landing of B-1B strategic bombers, and the British overseas territory of Diego Garcia serves as a backup base for these aircraft. According to him, 'these are low-capability capabilities, but a threat nonetheless.' AFP notes that the incident remains shrouded in mystery and speculation.
Image source, Getty Images Police officers were deployed to the area of the airbase in the days after the incident
