Probability of a strong El Niño estimated at 83%: satellites compared with 1997
NASA has published a comparison of the Pacific Ocean surface height in October 1997 and October 2026. According to a NOAA forecast dated October 8, 2026, the probability of a strong El Niño early next year is 83%. The 2026 event developed faster than in 1997–1998, but differently than in 2015–2016.
Otabek Yusupov