The key facts

  • The EU intends to allocate 90 billion euros to Ukraine by the end of 2027: 60 billion for defense, 30 billion for the budget and economy.
  • US aid to Ukraine has largely ceased since Trump came to power; US arms deliveries are being suspended.
  • Experts consider support for Ukraine part of Europe's own security strategy.

EU support is a strategic calculation, not sympathy

Political scientist Kamoliddin Rabbimov, in an interview on the YouTube channel Geosiyosatkunuz, stated that the European Union supports Ukraine not 'out of love,' but based on strategic interests. According to him, European leaders view Ukraine as a barrier against Russian aggression that weakens Russia's military potential. If Ukraine falls and comes under Russia's influence, this, in the expert's view, would trigger a 'domino effect': pressure on other states would intensify, Moscow's imperial policy would become more active, including in Central Asia, provocations against the Baltic states would become more frequent, and serious risks would arise for the EU and NATO.

Reduction of American aid

Rabbimov noted that after Donald Trump came to power, a significant portion of the US's gratuitous aid to Ukraine effectively ceased. The US continues to share intelligence, but this aid is periodically interrupted; disruptions also occur in the Starlink service, which is important for coordinating Ukrainian military operations. Moreover, despite the fact that the EU has paid for weapons purchased in the US for transfer to Ukraine, Washington has recently been dragging out this process. A separate problem is strategic weapons previously purchased by European countries from the US, such as Patriot systems and long-range cruise missiles: transferring them to a third country requires Pentagon approval, which, according to the expert, is currently not being granted.

Distrust of Putin's promises

According to Rabbimov, European political elites do not trust Vladimir Putin's promises. The experience of negotiations by former French President Francois Hollande and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel showed that Putin can make positive promises and then act contrary to them. In the West, it is widely believed that Russia's goals are not limited to Ukraine: Moscow is interested in weakening the EU, splitting NATO, and undermining transatlantic ties. Discussions often mention the anti-Western views of Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin, who promotes the idea of a fundamental change to the existing world order.

The EU's financial plans and the military situation

Political scientist Anvar Yoldoshev noted that EU aid to Ukraine goes in two directions — financial and military. The European Union plans to allocate 90 billion euros to Ukraine by the end of 2027: 60 billion euros for defense needs and 30 billion euros to support the budget and economy. The main burden will fall not on all EU countries, but on several states; the participation of Hungary and Slovakia is limited.

Assessment of Russia's military capabilities

Yoldoshev also touched on the question of Russia's military potential: the question remains open whether Russia is capable of launching a new large-scale offensive against all of Ukraine or capturing cities such as Odesa and Mykolaiv. Such attempts may occur in the future, but for this Russia would first need to restore and strengthen its military potential. Nevertheless, European countries do not want to rely on the assumption that Russia will not attack in the near future: they are strengthening their defenses, paying more attention to border security, and building up their armed forces, while continuing to strive to provide military aid to Ukraine.