The key facts

  • Chancellor Friedrich Merz for the first time allowed discussing basic income in the context of AI, although he previously treated the idea cautiously
  • Head of the Federal Employment Agency Andrea Nahles warned of the loss of up to 800,000 jobs in Germany over 15 years
  • Economists disagree: some consider UBI financially unfeasible, others support it with progressive financing

The Chancellor did not brush it off

At the government's 'Digital Summit' in Germany in early November 2026, Chancellor Friedrich Merz was asked an uncomfortable question: if artificial intelligence makes hundreds of thousands of people redundant in the coming years, shouldn't the state introduce a basic income to soften the consequences? Merz, known for his market-conservative views, did not reject the idea. According to him, he has always treated this topic with caution, but he realizes that AI 'will change our working world so fundamentally that in the coming years we will have to seriously think about many of these questions.'

A contradiction with his own policy

The prominence of this statement is amplified against the backdrop of the chancellor's own course: his government plans a pension reform with a higher retirement age, in July 2026 Merz announced a crackdown on sick leave, and in the spring of the previous year he criticized the concept of 'work-life balance,' stating that in the country 'one needs to work more and more efficiently.'

The scale of the threat to the labor market

Head of the Federal Employment Agency Andrea Nahles warned that the adoption of AI could cost Germany up to 800,000 jobs over the next 15 years — although, by her own estimate, AI may eventually create a comparable number of new jobs. Digitalisation Minister Karsten Wildberger, a former head of a large retail company, regularly warns of the need to prepare for economic upheavals from AI. In March, he told the Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung that he was convinced: 'unconditional basic income could become part of the solution to soften labor market shocks.'

Who supports the idea and why

The idea of universal basic income is old — Thomas More mentioned it as early as 'Utopia' in 1516 — but in the 20th century it was considered a left-wing idealistic concept. The situation changed when heads of technology companies picked it up: in 2017 Elon Musk predicted the inevitability of UBI, later it was supported by Sam Altman (OpenAI) and Dario Amodei (Anthropic), although Altman's interest cooled somewhat after the large-scale experiment he launched in the US in 2019. Kirsten Herrmann of the non-profit organization Mein Grundeinkommen called the new openness of politicians encouraging, but emphasized: individual statements are not yet political change. She sees the support from technocrats as a 'double-edged sword': their version of basic income is 'neoliberal,' designed for a situation when profitable jobs no longer exist, whereas her organization advocates a guaranteed economic base before the labor market crisis.

Economists disagree

The mainstream of German economics has long rejected the idea. Dominik Enste of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW) considers UBI too expensive, especially in a country with already high social spending burdens: according to him, calculations show financial unfeasibility, including because of already assumed obligations such as pensions. At the same time, he admits that if AI replaces labor, social security systems will have to change and, possibly, income created by AI should be taxed — but in the form of a conditional basic income that preserves incentives to work. Oxford economist Maximilian Kasy is more positive: he supports the idea 'especially with progressive financing,' when only people with low incomes remain net recipients, but emphasizes that the 'fine print' is decisive. In his view, the current vector — replacing workers for the sake of profit growth and corporate control — is not the only possible path.

The scale of change and open questions

The IMF in 2024 predicted that AI would affect about 40% of employment worldwide and up to 60% in wealthy industrial countries — unlike previous technological waves, the changes affect traditional urban middle classes around the world. Herrmann believes that the truly fundamental questions are not yet being asked: not only how to replace jobs, but also who will reap the gains from productivity growth. 'Which jobs AI will replace is not a law of nature,' she says. 'It is something we can shape politically and socially. And the main question is: who will have a say?'