Uzbekistan to create a unified platform of criminogenic data with AI-based crime forecasting

From recording crimes to forecasting them

Uzbekistan plans to move from registering and summarizing crimes already committed to forecasting crime trends using artificial intelligence. The relevant provisions are contained in a presidential decree of November 7, as reported by Daryo.uz. The new system is expected to identify risk factors in advance and make it possible to take measures to eliminate them before offenses are committed.

What the platform provides for

According to the document, a Unified Platform of Criminogenic Data will be developed and launched. It provides for maintaining an electronic registry of the objective and subjective causes of crimes, the responsible agencies and officials, and measures to eliminate the identified causes; monitoring of the results of measures taken — monthly, every six months and annually — without human involvement. The platform will also generate a criminogenic stability index reflecting crime trends, the socio-economic factors affecting it, infrastructure risks, the effectiveness of prevention, and the level of perceived safety among the population.

Evaluation of agencies and forecasts by mahalla

The performance of ministries, agencies, local government bodies and their subordinate structures in crime prevention will be assessed on the basis of key performance indicators (KPI), with a corresponding ranking maintained. The forecasting itself will cover crime trends by region, mahalla and type of crime over six-month and one-year horizons. Territories with a difficult criminogenic situation will, based on forecasting results, receive notifications with recommendations on stabilizing the situation.

Procedure after a notification

Based on notifications sent by the Prosecutor General's Office to local government bodies following forecasting results, a specific procedure of urgent comprehensive measures is provided. Within three days of receiving a notification, an interagency task force is formed under the leadership of the district or city khokim. Within a month, risk factors, causes of crime and shortcomings in the work of responsible agencies are identified, after which an annual plan of targeted measures is approved. At the six-month mark, an interim effectiveness assessment is carried out with the possibility of revising the plan, and at the end of the year the results are evaluated and the question of accountability is considered for officials who failed to ensure implementation of the plan.

Implementation timeline and reporting

By the end of 2027, the platform is planned to be launched in test mode in the Almazar district of Tashkent, and from 2028 its phased rollout across all regions of the country will begin. Every year, a national victimological survey of the population will be conducted, along with sociological studies of citizens' perceived level of safety and trust in law enforcement agencies, as well as targeted criminological studies — covering youth, minors, women, persons previously convicted or on probation registers, mahallas of the 'red' category, and other topics. Starting in 2028, the Prosecutor General's Office will annually submit an information report to the president with data on crime trend dynamics, the results of the criminogenic stability index, the accuracy of crime forecasts and the effectiveness of measures taken, as well as a comparative analysis of the situation in Uzbekistan and in CIS countries and other foreign states.