The key facts

  • The US consumer price index rose 0.4% in October versus expectations of 0.3%, slowing from 0.6% in September
  • Annual inflation figures were not published due to the government shutdown in October 2025
  • Gold fell 2.1% to $4,052.90 per ounce amid concerns about a Fed rate hike in December

Prices rose faster than forecasts, but annual data is missing

Consumer prices in the US rose 0.4% in October compared with the previous month, exceeding economists' expectations of 0.3%, Anadolu reports, citing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase slowed compared with September, when prices rose 0.6%.

What exactly became more expensive

The main contributors to the increase were energy, food and housing. Energy prices rose 0.7% after a sharp 5.2% jump in September: gasoline went up 1%, electricity 0.9%, while natural gas fell 0.8%. Food prices rose 0.5% after flat dynamics in September, including grocery items up 0.4% and food away from home up 0.5%. Housing costs increased 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the total monthly rise. Core inflation excluding food and energy came in at 0.3% for the third consecutive month. Recreation (0.8%), auto insurance (0.7%) and medical services (0.3%) also became more expensive, while used car prices fell 1.2%.

A gap in the statistics due to the shutdown

A peculiarity of the October report is the absence of annual figures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish either headline or core annual inflation, because the government shutdown in October 2025 disrupted the collection of survey data needed for year-over-year comparisons. Annual inflation was expected to reach 3.9%, but it is impossible to compare the forecast with an official figure. This means that this time the market assessed inflation based only on monthly dynamics.

Market reaction and the Fed factor

The data came out against the backdrop of hawkish statements by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who before the statistics were published backed a rate hike in December and allowed for a larger increase if inflation turns out stronger than he expects: he leans toward a 25 basis point hike even if monthly inflation improves, while a substantially stronger reading could be grounds for considering a 50 basis point hike. Gold fell 2.1%, or $87.60, to $4,052.90 per ounce, while silver dropped 2.8% to $51.90 per ounce. Higher rates usually weigh on gold, raising the opportunity cost of holding an asset that yields no interest income.