The key facts
- Political scientist Alexander Lukin believes China will not push Iran into a ceasefire with the US, but may support agreements already reached.
- One option for such support is increasing purchases of Iranian oil.
- Earlier, according to The Washington Post, the US asked China to use its influence on Iran, and Beijing relayed the American message to Tehran.
Beijing's position: support instead of mediation
China is unlikely to push Tehran into a ceasefire with Washington, but it may support agreements already reached — including by increasing purchases of Iranian oil. This assessment was given by the head of the Department of International Relations at HSE University Alexander Lukin in a comment to NSN, as cited by Life.ru.
Why helping Washington is not in Beijing's interests
“China's relations with the US are rather strained — why help the US, what would they give in return? Lower tariffs, or what?” the political scientist noted. He described the consequences of the conflict for China as ambiguous: expensive oil runs counter to China's economic interests, but strategically it benefits the country that the US is expending its strength in other directions and paying less attention to the confrontation with it. At the same time, according to Lukin, the Chinese side opposes American military action.
Oil as a way to consolidate the ceasefire, not a lever of pressure
Lukin suggested viewing a possible expansion of oil purchases as a way to reinforce an agreed ceasefire, not as an instrument to force Iran into a deal. The context of the US request is as follows: earlier Washington asked China to use its influence on Iran to end the conflict, and, according to The Washington Post, Beijing has already relayed the American message to Tehran. Thus, this is not about an independent initiative by Beijing, but about its response to an American request — and, in the political scientist's assessment, about supporting agreements that already exist, not about new mediation.
