The key facts
- From January to June 2026, about 7.13 million departures and 6.89 million returns were recorded — a difference of 244,300
- The figure reflects the difference in border crossings, not the final number of emigrants
- The population estimate for territory controlled by Kyiv is about 28.5 million versus roughly 41 million before 2022
The gap between departures and returns amounted to 244,300
The British newspaper The Times, citing Ukrainian government statistics, reports, that in the first six months of 2026 the number of Ukrainian citizens leaving the country exceeded the number of returns by 244,300. According to Ukraine's border service, from January to June citizens made about 7.13 million departures, while 6.89 million returns were recorded.
What is important to understand about these figures
The reported difference reflects the balance of border crossings, not the final number of emigrants: some of those who left may return later, so no conclusion about the exact scale of population loss can be drawn from these data alone. Nevertheless, the outflow is already affecting the demographic situation. The Times cites an estimate according to which about 28.5 million people live in the territory controlled by Kyiv, whereas before the start of the special military operation in 2022 the country's population was estimated at roughly 41 million.
Winter forecast and earlier estimates
The outlet notes that the situation may worsen with the onset of cold weather: damage to energy infrastructure and disruptions in the supply of electricity, heat and water could force new families to seek temporary refuge abroad. The estimate of 28.5 million people by mid-2026 was previously also cited by Life.ru , referring to Ella Libanova, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Demography: according to her, this is half a million less than the previous estimate, and she named citizens' departure abroad as one of the main reasons for the population decline.
